[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Thu Feb 15 06:04:01 CST 2018


AXNT20 KNHC 151203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient,
that exists between a strong surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern South America,
will continue to support gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia through the week. The sea heights associated with the
gale-force wind conditions are forecast to range from 12 feet to
17 feet. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W to the Equator along 18W. The ITCZ continues from
the Equator along 18W, to 03S30W 03S34W, and 04S39W along the
coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers from 07N southward. Upper level SW wind flow
is to the SE of the line that passes through 32N09W 26N20W 17N50W
15N62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1027 mb high
pressure center that is near 29N73W, to a 1028 mb high pressure
center that is in NE Florida near 30N82W, to 26N94W in the Gulf of
Mexico, to 20N97W at the coast of Mexico.

Rainshowers are possible, in scattered-to-broken low level clouds,
from 23N southward from 90W westward.

E-to-SE winds, associated with a ridge that extends from the
Atlantic Ocean into the central Gulf of Mexico, will prevail
across the basin through Saturday. A weak cold front will stall
along the Texas coast on Saturday night and Sunday, and then
retreat northward on Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC...according
to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.29 in Curacao, and 0.02 in
Guadeloupe.

Strong trade winds will continue today E of 80W, including in the
Atlantic Ocean passages. Winds to minimal gale-force will persist
near the coast of Colombia through Monday night. The area of
winds and seas in the eastern Caribbean Sea and the tropical N
Atlantic Ocean will diminsh gradually through Saturday, then
increase again on Sunday and on Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 32N28W to 30N50W to 32N64W, to a 1025
mb low pressure center that is near 31N69W. Scattered-to-broken
low level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the N of the
line that passes through 32N34W to 23N59W, to 27N80W.

An upper level trough extends from 32N14W, to 23N27W, becoming a
shear axis to 16N47W, 16N56W, to 16N77W in the Caribbean Sea, to
the central part of the coast of Nicaragua.

A persistent ridge along 29N will remain in place through Sunday
night. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of 25N, with
moderate to fresh winds expected south of 25N. A weak cold front
will move off the SE U.S. coast on Sunday, and then dissipate
through Monday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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