[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight gradient between a strong
surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
in northern South America will continue to support gale-force
winds near the coast of Colombia through Thursday morning, then
pulse to minimal gale each night into the weekend. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the coast of Africa
near 05N10W and crosses the equator near 19W. The ITCZ is south
of the equator. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm S
of the axis between 11W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the western panhandle of Florida
to the Bay of Campeche. A ridge is across eastern Mexico and the
NW Gulf behind the front. Strong northerly winds are S of 21N
near the coast of Mexico. Moist southerly flow moving northward
in the NE Gulf ahead of the front in response to a mid to upper
level trough sliding eastward across the NE Gulf is producing
widespread showers north of 25N east of the trough. The front
will weaken overnight, with the frontal remnants slowly lifting
back north as a warm front on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia.

Water vapor imagery shows dry and stable atmospheric conditions
across the basin. Patches of shallow trade wind showers are
advecting westward east of 75W, including the Lesser Antilles. A
strong ridge N of the area anchored by a 1036 mb high in the
central Atlc extends across the northern half of the Caribbean,
with the associated pressure gradient supporting fresh to strong
trade winds east of 80W. Seas are 12-15 ft near Colombia and 8
to 12 ft elsewhere. Strong winds are also occurring through the
Atlc passages, and are expected to continue through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface high pressure over the area is associated with a
1036 mb high centered over the N central Atlantic is supporting
fresh to strong E-NE winds over most of the region, except close
to the ridge axis north of 25N. Isolated trade wind showers are
noted from 15N to 25N and between 40W and 60W. Shower activity
should move across the Leeward Islands later tonight through Tue
night.

A cold front moving off the U.S. east coast will approach 30N
Tue night, then become stationary across the central Atlantic
Wed and Thu. Scattered showers are expected to develop along and
ahead of the frontal boundary north of 30N through Tue night as
an upper level trough shifts eastward from the NE Gulf. The next
cold front is forecast to enter the NW forecast waters by early
Saturday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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