[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near and along the
coast of Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and
early morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Liberia and the Ivory Coast near 04N08W, and it curves through
02N16W to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W, crossing the
Equator along 22W, to 04N31W. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N
southward between 40W and 51W. isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb low pressure
center that is near 33N76W, through NE Florida near 30N81W, into
the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 20N.
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 22N southward between
90W and 95W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere across
the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge is pushing its way southward, from the Deep South
of Texas, along the coast of Mexico, toward the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

The current cold front will stall from SW Florida, to 23N95W, into
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The front
will dissipate by Friday. A second cold front will move off the
Texas coast late on Sunday, and then stall from the Mississippi
Delta to the western Bay of Campeche on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the
NW Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula, the eastern part of
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and
Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
from 22N southward between 90W and 95W, and associated with the
current cold front that is in the Gulf of Mexico. isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 15N to
22N between 80W and 96W, covering parts of the NW Caribbean Sea,
interior sections of Central America, and parts of the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico.

Broken to overcast low level clouds and possible rainshowers are
from 14N southward between 60W and 71W, and elsewhere, spread
across the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 08/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 3.31 in
Curacao, and 0.07 in Guadeloupe.

Strong to near gale force trades will prevail across the south-
central Caribbean Sea this week, except for nocturnal pulses to
minimal gale-force along the NW coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong trade winds are expected elsewhere across the central
Caribbean Sea, including the north-central passages through Friday.
These strong conditions then will spread eastward across the
eastern Caribbean Sea waters, and persist through Monday night.
Strong trade winds and building seas are forecast across the
tropical waters north of 11N through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb low pressure
center that is near 33N76W, through NE Florida near 30N81W, into
the central Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible to the NW of
the line that passes through 32N60W, to the coast of Florida near
27N80W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between
Africa and the SE U.S.A. A 1038 mb high pressure center is near
37N34W.

The current cold front that is just off the NE Florida coast will
shift E and stall from Bermuda to southeast Florida early on
Friday. Remnants of the front will lift northward across the
waters that are to the north of the Bahamas on Friday and Saturday.
Another cold front will move off the NE Florida coast late on
Monday. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected to
continue along the northern coast of Hispaniola and the Atlantic
Ocean approach to the Windward Passage through Friday. A
tightening pressure gradient then will support strong trade winds
across all the waters south of 23N by late Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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