[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near and along the
coast of Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and
early morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W, and it curves through 06N15W to 04N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N18W, crossing the Equator along 24W, to 02N30W,
and to 03S35W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N southward
between 38W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 22N.
Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that runs from the
coast of Florida near 25N to the Yucatan Peninsula.

A cold front extending southwest from the Florida
Panhandle to Northeast Mexico will stall from southwest Florida to
23N95W to the Bay of Campeche this afternoon. Remnants of the
front will lift north across the northwest gulf waters on Fri, and
then drift northeast across the northern coastal plains on Fri
night into Sat. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast
late Sun, and stall from the Mississippi Delta to the western Bay
of Campeche on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the
Yucatan Peninsula, the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and Belize. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 15N to
22N between 86W and 96W, covering parts of the NW Caribbean Sea,
interior sections of Central America, and parts of the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico.

Broken to overcast low level clouds and possible rainshowers are
from 14N southward between 60W and 71W, and elsewhere, spread
across the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 08/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 3.31 in
Curacao, and 0.07 in Guadeloupe.

Strong to near gale force trades are expected across the south-
central Caribbean Sea this week, except for nocturnal pulses to
minimal gale-force along the northwest coast of Colombia. Fresh-
to-strong trade winds are forecast elsewhere across the central
Caribbean Sea, including in the north-central passages through
Friday. These strong conditions then will spread eastward across
the eastern Caribbean Sea waters, and persist through Monday
night. Strong trade winds and building seas are forecast across
the tropical waters north of 11N through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between
20W and the SE U.S.A. A 1039 mb high pressure center is near
37N33W.

A dissipating cold front passes through the Western Sahara near
23N16W to 21N20W. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast today and
stall from Bermuda to southeast Florida early on Friday. Remnants
of the front will lift northward across the waters that are to the
north of the Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Another cold front
will move off the northeast Florida coast late on Monday. Fresh
to locally strong trade winds are expected to continue along the
northern coast of Hispaniola and the Atlantic approach to the
Windward Passage through Friday. A tightening pressure gradient
then will support strong trade winds across all the waters that
are to the south of 23N by late Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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