[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070608 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

Corrected header time

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and
lower pressure in northwestern South America will continue to
support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia the
next few days during the late night and early morning hours.
Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from coastal Liberia near 06N09W
to 03N15W to 03N22W, where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ
continues and dips to below the equator near 28W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the axis between 25W-
28W, and within 30 nm of a line from 01N32W to 01N36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extending from the western Atlantic stretches
southwestward across northern Florida and to the N centraL
Gulf. This feature presently controls the wind regime across the
area. The buoys along with recent Ascat data indicate light to
moderate return flow over the area. As of 03Z, a warm front is
is over eastern Texas. Isolated showers are over portions of the
eastern gulf, and Straits of Florida. The warm front will lift
northward overnight as a cold front approaches eastern Texas, and
moves out over the NW Gulf by early on Wed. Expect areas of dense
fog to again form over portions of the NW Gulf and along the
coastal section of the N central gulf tonight. The aforementioned
cold front will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds
and seas building to 8 ft, mainly along the northern Gulf and off
the coast of Mexico as the front reaches from central Florida to
the SW Gulf by Thu evening. The front is forecast to lift back
northward as a weak warm front over the western Gulf on Fri and
Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong winds in the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun,
with highest winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 10-16 ft
over much of the south-central and SW Caribbean, and up to 9 ft
elsewhere. Stable environmental conditions are expected to prevail
across the basin, however patches of shallow moisture may support
brief passing isolated showers mainly E of about 72W. The current
synoptic pattern will also support fresh to strong winds in the
Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba through
the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front enters the region through 32N62W,
and reaches to near 27N72W. weaken from near 32N64W southwestward
to the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted N of 29N between 64W-68W. The front will weaken to a
trough early this morning and dissipate this afternoon. High
pressure building behind the front will support fresh to locally
strong E winds south of 24N in the approaches of the Windward
Passage through Thu night. These winds in the SW N Atlc will
expand northward to 25N during the weekend. Otherwise, a surface
trough is analyzed ahead of the front along a position from near
31N60W to 25N66W to the coast of inland N central Hispaniola near
2071W. Isolated showers are along and within 60 nm SE of the
trough axis N of 27N. The portion of the trough S of 27N appears
to be diffusing with time. A cold front is forecast to emerge
off the SE United States coast early on Thu, and move across the
NW waters of the discussion area during Thu. The cold front will
become stationary from near Bermuda to southeastern Florida by
Thu night. The pressure gradient associated with high pressure
that will build behind this upcoming cold front will induce
fresh NE winds along with seas building to the range of 6-10 ft
to the NW waters Thu night and Fri. Winds are forecast to
diminish on Fri as the high pressure shifts eastward, and the
western portion of the front lifts back to the N as a warm front.

The Azores high pressure system extends a ridge west-southwestward
across the central and eastern Atlc, where latest scatterometer
data showed mainly moderate to fresh winds. Fresh to locally
strong trades are expected to materialize over the waters S of 22N
and E of the Bahamas as the gradient around the southern periphery
of high over the Atlantic waters tightens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
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