[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070004 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and
lower pressure in northwestern South America will continue to
support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia the
next few days during late night and early morning hours. Please
read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from coastal Liberia near 06N09W
to 03N15W to 03N22W, where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ
continues and dips to below the equator near 30W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the axis between 21W-26W,
and within 30 nm of the axis between 13W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extending from the western Atlantic stretches
southwestward across northern Florida and to the N centraL
Gulf. This feature presently controls the wind regime across the
area. The buoys along with recent Ascat data indicate light to
moderate return flow over the area. As of 18Z, a warm front is
cold front is over eastern Texas. Isolated showers are over
portions of the eastern gulf, and Straits of Florida. The warm
front will lift northward tonight as a cold front approaches
eastern Texas, and moves out over the NW Gulf by early on Wed.
Expect areas of dense fog to again form over portions of the NW
Gulf tonight. The aforementioned cold front will be followed by
fresh to strong northerly winds and seas building to 8 ft, mainly
along the northern Gulf and off the coast of Mexico as the front
reaches from central Florida to the southwest Gulf by Thu evening.
The front then will lift northward as a weak warm front over the
western Gulf on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong winds in the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun,
with highest winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 10-16 ft
over much of the south-central and SW Caribbean, and up to 9 ft
elsewhere. Stable environmental conditions are expected to prevail
across the basin, however patches of shallow moisture may support
isolated passing showers south of 18N. The current synoptic
pattern will also support fresh to strong winds in the Windward
Passage, S of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front continues to weaken from near 32N64W
southwestward to the NW Bahamas. The front will weaken to a
trough late tonight or early Wed, before dissipating later on Wed.
High pressure building behind the front will support fresh to
locally strong E winds south of 24N in the approaches of the
Windward Passage through Thu night. These winds in the SW N Atlc
will expand northward to 25N during the weekend. Otherwise, a
surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front along a position
from near 31N60W to 25N66W to inland N central Hispaniola near
1971W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm either side of the
trough axis N of 28N. The Azores high pressure system extends a
ridge west-southwestward across the central and eastern Atlc,
where latest scatterometer data showed mainly moderate to fresh
winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net