[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1258 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
in northwestern South America will continue to support minimal
gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia the next few days
during late night and early morning hours. Please read latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Liberia near 05N09W to
03N14W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W across the
equator near 28W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N to 04N between 10W and 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Platforms over the northwest Gulf continue to report areas of fog,
however it should clear up by this afternoon. Currently, a ridge
centered over the NW Atlc near 37N69W extends a ridge SW across
Florida and the Gulf, thus providing light to moderate return
flow ahead of the next cold front to move into the northwest Gulf
Wed near sunrise. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas
building to 8 ft will follow the front, mainly along the northern
Gulf and off the coast of Mexico as the front reaches from
central Florida to the southwest Gulf by Thu evening. The front
then will lift northward as a weak warm front over the western
Gulf Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong
winds in the central and eastern Caribbean through Sunday, with
highest winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 10 to 15 ft
over much of the south-central and SW Caribbean, and up to 9 ft
elsewhere. Stable conditions prevail across the basin, however patches
of shallow moisture may support isolated passing showers south of
18N. The current synoptic pattern will also support fresh to
strong winds in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and in
the lee of Cuba through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front continues to weaken from 30N64W SW to the
northern Bahamas near 24N77W. The front will weaken in to a
surface trough later today, then dissipate Wed. High pressure
building behind the front will support fresh to locally strong E
winds south of 24N in the approaches of the Windward Passage
through Thu night. These winds in the SW N Atlc will expand
northward to 25N during the weekend. Otherwise, a surface trough
is ahead of the front extending from 31N60W to north-central
Hispaniola near 20N70W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm either
side of the trough axis. The Azores high extends a ridge west-
southwestward across the central and eastern Atlc, where latest
scatterometer data show mainly moderate to fresh winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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