[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
in northwestern South America will continue to support minimal
gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia the next few days
during late night and early morning hours. Please read latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Liberia near 05N10W to
04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W across the equator near 25W to
the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N to 05N between 12W and 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail of a dissipating stationary front extends from South
Florida near 25N81W NW to 26N86W, however no convection is
associated with it. Platforms over the northwest Gulf report
areas of fog this morning, however it should clear up by early
this afternoon. Currently, a ridge centered off the mid-Atlc
states provide light to moderate return flow ahead of the next
cold front to move into the northwest Gulf Wed morning. Fresh to
strong northerly winds and seas building to 8 ft will follow the
front, mainly off the coast of Mexico, as the front reaches from
central Florida to the southwest Gulf by Thu night, then lift
northward as a weak warm front over the western Gulf Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Wed, with highest
winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 10 to 15 ft over much
of the south central and SW Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.
Mostly dry, stable conditions prevail across the basin. Patches of
shallow moisture may support isolated passing showers south of
Hispaniola. The current synoptic pattern will also support fresh
to strong winds in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola
through Fri. High pressure building over the central Atlc will
support fresh trades east of the Leeward and Windward Islands,
accompanied by E-NE swell in excess of 8 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 30N66W SW to the northern Bahamas
and across South Florida where it starts to dissipate. The front
will weaken then dissipate Wed. High pressure building behind the
front will support fresh to locally strong E winds south of 22N
the next few days. A surface trough north of Puerto Rico will
drift westward without much convection. The Azores high extends a
ridge west- southwestward across the central and eastern Atlc,
where latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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