[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
in northwestern South America will continue to support minimal
gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia the next few days
during late night and early morning hours. Please read latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Liberia near 06N10W to
04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W across the equator to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. There is no significant convection
associated with the convergence zone.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front snakes across the Gulf of Mexico
from southern Florida to Texas. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the
region. The front will lift northward dissipate and along the
northern Gulf coast early Tue. A cold front will move into the
northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
seas building to 8 ft will follow the front, mainly off the
coast of Mexico, as the front reaches from central Florida to
the southwest Gulf by late Thu, then lift northward as a weak
warm front over the western Gulf Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Wed, with highest
winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 8 to 12 ft over much
of the south central and SW Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.
Mostly dry, stable conditions prevail across the basin. Patches
of shallow moisture may support isolated passing showers south
of Hispaniola. The current synoptic pattern will support fresh
to strong winds off Colombia, in the Windward Passage and south
of Hispaniola through Fri. High pressure building over the
central Atlc will support fresh trades east of the Leeward and
Windward Islands, accompanied by E-NE swell in excess of 8 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N67W SW to the Florida Keys with
isolated showers northwest of the front. The front will weaken
and stall from 28N65W to the Straights of Florida Tuesday, then
dissipate Wed. High pressure building behind the front will
support fresh to locally strong E winds south of 22N the next
few days. A surface trough north of Puerto Rico will drift
westward without much convection. The Azores high extends a
ridge west-southwestward across the central and eastern Atlc,
where latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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