[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in
northwestern South America, will continue to support gale-force
winds near the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 74W and
77W, mainly at night, through the middle of the week. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N08W to 05N15W and 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W,
crossing the Equator along 26W, to 02S35W 03S45W, and 01S52W in
Brazil. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 03N southward between 25W and 35W.
rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, to the coastal
plains of Louisiana, to the upper Texas Gulf coast, and continuing
in Texas from 29N to 30N, to 100W. A surface trough passes through
south central Georgia, to the Florida Big Bend, into the Gulf of
Mexico near 27N89W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the
NW of the line 26n82W 22N97W. scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers have been moving from the Gulf waters across
Florida from 26N northward, during the last few hours.

A surface ridge extends from 27N74W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
the Bahamas, to 25N90W in the Gulf of Mexico. A 1019 mb high
pressure center is in Mexico near 21N101W.

Southerly return flow dominates much of the Gulf region ahead of
the current cold front. An area of showers with embedded tstms is
over the NE Gulf ahead of the front associated with the pre-
frontal trough. It is possible that winds and seas may be higher
near tstms. The front will stall from South Florida to South Texas
by late Mon, then dissipate as it lifts northward Tue ahead of a
another cold front moving into the northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh
to strong northerly winds will follow the front mainly off the
coast of Mexico as the front reaches a position from central
Florida to the southwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh
to strong winds off Colombia, the Windward Passage and in the
lee of Hispaniola through Fri, pulsing to gale force off Colombia
each night. High pressure building over the central Atlc will
support fresh trades east of the Leeward and Windward Islands,
accompanied by NE to E swell in excess of 8 ft by early Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N55W, to 30N60W, and to
27N70W. The front continues to dissipate. A surface trough is
along 32N53W 25N59W 19N59W. rainshowers are possible from 20N
northward from 50W westward.

Fresh to strong southerly flow is setting up across the NW waters
ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the NE Florida
coast late tonight. The front will reach from 31N75W to 26N80W by
early Mon morning, and extend from Bermuda to South Florida by
early Tue before stalling then lifting north through mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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