[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031113
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
613 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure
in northwestern South America will continue to support winds
pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia, mainly at
night, during the weekend. Please read the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the following areas: AGADIR and TARFAYA. This
forecast is valid until 04/0000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast sections of Liberia
near 05N10W, to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W, to the
Equator along 21W, and continuing to 04S35W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 04N
southward from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from southwest Florida to 25N93W to Tampico
Mexico. High pressure north of the region beind the front is
supporting fresh east winds across the north central and northwest
Gulf with seas to 8 ft. The winds and seas are subsiding as the
high pressure shifts eastward and the front weakens. The front
will stall over the eastern Gulf this morning, then lift northward
over the western Gulf through through late today. Weak low
pressure forming along the front over the NW Gulf will move
through the Carolinas, with a dissipating cold front trailing over
the northern Gulf. A reinforcing cold front will move into the
Gulf late Sun, merge with the dying front then stall along 24N
through late Mon. The front will lift N through Tue ahead of a
stronger cold front expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 17N87W. One surface trough
extends SE from the low center to 16N81W. A second surface trough
extends SW from the low center to 15N89W in eastern Guatemala.
Rainshowers are possible from 15N northward from 80W westward,
in areas of scattered-to-broken low level clouds.

Fresh-to-near gale-force winds NW of the coast of Colombia will
increase, to minimal gale-force, late Saturday into early Sunday
as the pressure gradient tightens, with pulsing during the
subsequent nighttime hours. Mainly moderate-to-locally fresh
trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the basin, occasionally
increasing to fresh-to-strong across the approach to the Windward
Passage and in the lee of the Dominican Republic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N72W to Florida near 28N82W, and
beyond, into the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible to the
NW of the line that passes through 32N59W to 18N62W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 10N northward between 42W and 60W. A surface trough is
along 10N51W 26N51W 33N52W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 17N to 32N
between 45W and 52W. rainshowers are possible within 60 nm
to 120 nm on either side of 08N58W 15N52W 20N49W.

The current cold front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida
by early Saturday, and then stall along 25N on Saturday night.
The front will lift N of the area late on Sunday, ahead of
another cold front that will be moving off the NE Florida coast
on Sunday night. The second cold front will reach from Bermuda to
South Florida by early Tuesday, before stalling and then lifting
N through the middle of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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