[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge over the north Atlantic waters and lower pressure
in northwestern South America will continue to support winds
pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia through the
weekend. The sea heights are forecast to be as high as 14 ft
during this peak winds period. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 08N11W
and continues over the Atlantic Ocean to 02N20W. The ITCZ
continues from there to 00N30W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate
convection exists within 150 n mi either side of the ITCZ west of
27W. Similar activity exists within 60 n mi of the monsoon
trough.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mostly light southeast to south winds and fair conditions continue across
the Gulf of Mexico. These conditions are supported by the western
extension of a subtropical ridge, which is centered over the
north-central Atlantic Ocean. Satellite data show generally dry
conditions, except for patches of shallow moisture in the western
half of the area. Along the northern half of the Gulf,
disorganized cloudiness is streaming into the area in the mid- and
upper- levels from the tropical east Pacific. Looking ahead, a
cold front currently moving off the coast of Texas will move
southeastward and then is expected to stall from south-central
Florida to the central Gulf by early Saturday before lifting
northward as a warm front. Another cold front is forecast to move
across Florida by Monday morning, bringing scattered showers with
its passage.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to show stable dry air in
the low, middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This dry air
mass and surface high pressure is supporting fair weather. The
only notable weather consist of patches of shallow moisture over
the NW Caribbean, likely associated with the remnants of an old
front. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring across the bulk of
the area, except for the south-central waters where winds to
minimal gale force are continuing.  No significant changes are
expected across the area during the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An extensive surface ridge extends from a 1038 mb high in the
north-central Atantic across much of the southwestern Atlantic
waters. Mostly fair weather continues over the western Atlantic,
except near the coast of northern Florida where mufti-layered
clouds and embedded showers exist. Over the central Atlantic, to
the east of the front, a surface trough from 23N46W to 13N51W is
producing scattered showers from N of 25N between 45W and 50W.
Another surface trough is to the SE, extending from 22N43W to
14N50W. Scattered to isolated showers are within 90 n mi either
side of its axis. The next cold front is expected to move over the
western Atlantic by this afternoon, and then it will stall over
the northern SW N Atlc Sat night and dissipate Sunday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos/Cangialosi
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