[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 07N12W
and continues over the Atlantic Ocean to 03N17W. The ITCZ
continues from there to 01S28W to 0N50W. Scattered moderate
convection exists within 150 nmi either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mostly light southeast to south winds and fair conditions exist
across the Gulf of Mexico today supported by the western extension
of a subtropical ridge, which is centered over the N Atlantic
Ocean. There are no areas of deep convection noted in satellite
images, and only disorganized cloudiness and perhaps a few showers
exist north of 25N and west of 84W. Sea heights in the area are
also low, except near the coast of Texas where buoys are reporting
seas near 6 ft. Looking ahead, a cold front will move over the
northern waters by Friday morning with fresh to strong northeasterly
winds behind it. This front is expected to stall near Sarasota,
Florida and across the central Gulf early Saturday before lifting
northward as a warm front across the western Gulf waters Saturday
through Saturday night. A second cold front will move across
Florida Monday morning, reaching South Florida Monday night.
Scattered heavy showers are expected across the north-central and
NE Gulf waters associated with the passage of the second cold
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Fairly quiet conditions exist across the majority of the
Caribbean Sea today supported by very dry air in the mid- and
upper-level in the atmosphere. Only patches of low clouds and a
few showers exist north of 16N between 75W and 85W associated with
a weak surface trough and the remnants of an old front.
Scatterometer and surface data indicate that fresh to strong trade
winds are occurring across much of the area, strongest close to
the coast of Colombia and near the Windward Passage. No
significant changes are expected across the area during the next
day or so.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A front is stationary across the western Atlantic, entering the
discussion area near 32N49W and extending southwestward to the
southeastern Bahamas. This front is weakening, and satellite
images show only scattered clouds near the boundary. Surface high
pressure is in control west of the front supporting fair weather
with light to moderate winds. Over the central Atlantic, to the
east of the front, a surface trough from 31N49W to 15N50W is
producing scattered showers from 18N to 26N between 41W and 46W.
Quiet conditions and fresh to strong trade winds exist over the
eastern Atlantic due to the combination of surface high pressure
and dry air aloft. The next cold front is expected to move over
the western Atlantic by Friday afternoon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Rivera/Ramos
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