[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011152
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a
strong surface ridge moving across the west Atlc waters and
lower pressure over northwest South America, will support minimal
gale-force winds pulsing at night near the coast of Colombia
through tonight. The sea heights will range from 10 feet to 15
feet during the peak winds period. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia,
Africa near 06N10W and continues to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues
from there to 01N21W to 0N35W to 0N50W. Isolated showers are
within 90 nm either side of the monsoon and ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center
located in the mid-Atlc waters near 32N73W SW across Florida and
into the Gulf of Mexico. A relaxed pressure gradient prevails in
the basin, thus supporting generally light to moderate return flow
ahead of the next cold front to move southeast off the northern
Gulf coast Friday morning. The front will move across the southern
Florida Peninsula Friday night to Saturday morning, however a
great portion of the front across the Gulf will stall before
lifting northward as a warm front across the western Gulf waters
Saturday through Saturday night. Fresh to strong northerly winds
will accompany the passage of this front. A second cold front will
move across Florida Monday morning, reaching South Florida Monday
night. Scattered heavy showers are expected across the north-
central and NE Gulf waters associated with the passage of the
second cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

The remnants of a shear line in the NW Caribbean are analyzed as a
surface trough that extends from 20N84W to the Gulf of Honduras
near 15N87W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm either
side of this boundary. Strong high pressure in the mid-Atlc
extending to the SW N Atlc continue to support moderate to fresh
NE winds off the lee of Cuba and in the Windward passage. Fresh to
near gale-force winds are in the south-central basin, except for
minimal gale winds off the coast of Colombia. Moderate trades are
in the remainder eastern basin. GOES-16 imagery show dry and very
stable conditions in the lower and middle levels, which is
supporting fair weather. Otherwise, a cold front will stall
across the Yucatan Channel on Monday night with possible showers
and fresh to strong winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface ridge centered in the mid-Atlc waters extends
south across the SW N Atlc. Ahead of the ridge, a stationary
front extends from 31N53W to 24N61W to eastern Cuba. Isolated
showers are possible in the vicinity of the boundary, however
strong convection is not anticipated. In the central Atlc, a weak
surface trough lack of convection extends from 26N47W to 18N53W.
NE of this trough, a middle to upper level low continues to
support scattered showers from 20N to 26N between 37W and 45W. The
remainder eastern Atlc is under the influence of the Azores high
anchored by a 1037 mb high just N of the islands. The cold front
over the central Atlc is forecast to stall Thu while it continues
to weaken. A second cold front will move southeast off the
northeast Florida coast on Friday afternoon. The front will reach
from 30N64W SW to the northern Bahamas Saturday morning. The front
is forecast to stall late Saturday night from 30N61W to the
northern Bahamas late Saturday night. A third cold front is
forecast to be moving off the northeast Florida coast on Monday
morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

NR/ERA
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