[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 PM EST Mon Dec 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure north of the region will support fresh to
strong winds across mainly the central Caribbean through the
week. Gale force winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia
mainly during overnight and early morning hours through mid
week. Please refer to the High Seas forecast product under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 04N07W to 04N12W. The ITCZ continues from 04N12W to
03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N-02N between 00W-05W, and from 00N-07N
between 10W-27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 31/1500 UTC, a cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico
from SW Louisiana near 30N93W to Tampico Mexico near 22N98W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. 20 kt winds
are on both sides of the front. Platforms across the NW Gulf are
reporting areas of fog, with visibilities varying from 3 nm to 5
nm.

The front will drift E tonight stalling again from Mobile Bay to
Tampico, Mexico late Tue. The front will drift back W over the
NW gulf waters on Wed, then move E again as a cold front on Wed
night, reaching from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of
Campeche on Thu, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to the
Yucatan Peninsula on Fri, and move E of the area on Sat. Strong
to near gale force northerly winds are forecast to develop
across the western gulf waters late Thu, increasing to minimal
gale force along the Mexican coast near Veracruz Mexico late
Fri. A trough will develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula
each afternoon through Fri, move W across the SW gulf during the
overnight hours and lose identity by late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A scatterometer pass confirmed gale force winds off the central
coast of Colombia. Seas are at least 10 to 13 ft in the area of
gales, and 7 to 10 ft elsewhere over the eastern and central
Caribbean. No significant convection is noted at this time
anywhere across the basin.

Strong to near gale force trade winds will prevail across the
Central Caribbean through Sat, increasing to gale force along
the NW coast of Colombia each night through the middle of each
morning before diminishing. Locally strong nocturnal trades are
forecast across the western Gulf of Honduras through Tue night.
Locally strong winds expected through the Windward Passage
through Wed night. A cold front will move through the Yucatan
Channel early Fri, before stalling from central Cuba to northern
Belize Fri night. Moderate to fresh trades expected elsewhere
through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N72W. A
cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N41W to 29N50W to
27N60W to 27N66W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 28N
between 40W-55W. A 1014 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic
near 33N23W. a cold front extends S from the low to 32N21W to
27N25W. A stationary front continues to 21N34W. A dissipating
stationary front continues further to 14N50W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the fronts.

The surface high and fronts will move E over the next 48 hours.
A  cold front will move off the N Florida coast Wed. Another
cold front will move off the N Florida coast late Fri
accompanied by a strong wind shift to the N of 29N. This second
front will reach from Bermuda to the Central Bahamas on Sat
night. Fresh to strong trades will continue along the N coast of
Hispaniola and the Atlc approach to the Windward passage.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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