[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 AM EST Sun Dec 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Gale-force winds are forecast along the coast of Colombia each
night through mid-week. The gale winds will cover the area from
11N-13N between 73W-76W with seas 12 to 14 ft. Winds are forecast
to go below gale-force in the afternoon hours, and resume again
by 0000 UTC. Please refer to the High Seas forecast product under
the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N10W to 03N14W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 02N30W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N-03N between 00W-12W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 00N-05N between 20W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W
to 29N88W to 26N95W to north of Vera Cruz Mexico near 20N97W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh winds over the northwest gulf
waters north of the front, while gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere.

The stationary front will weaken with the remnants drifting W and
gradually dissipating through Sunday night. A cold front will
move off the Texas coast around sunrise on Monday, reach from the
Mississippi Delta to Veracruz Mexico on Tuesday and from the
Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday. Strong to
near-gale northerly winds are forecast to develop across the
western gulf waters on Tuesday night, increasing to gale force
along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz on Wednesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning
for the south-central Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the area. Low-
topped trade wind showers continue to quickly move across the
basin.

Little change is expected through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N80W. To the
east, a 1027 mb surface high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 30N60W. Scattered showers are noted north of 30N
between 60W-72W just south of a cold front that extends north of
the area. A cold front is over the eastern Atlantic from 31N29W
to 21N37W to 17N49W, then becomes stationary to 17N60W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 75 nm E of the front mainly north of
of 28N. Surface ridging prevails over the remainder of the basin.

The ridge over the west Atlantic will shift south with fresh to
strong trades prevailing through the weekend. A cold front will
move slowly into the northern Atlantic waters on Sunday. The
front will stall and gradually dissipate from 28N65W to 31N74W
through Monday night. Fresh southerly flow will set up north of
the ridge on Tuesday ahead of a second cold front moving off the
north Florida coast on Tuesday night. This second front will begin
to stall from 31N74W to Central Florida on Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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