[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1232 PM EST Fri Dec 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Gale-force winds are forecast along the coast of Colombia each
night through Tue night. The gale winds will cover the area from
11N to 13N between 72W and 78W with seas 10 to 16 ft. The present
gale is forecast to end 28/1800 UTC, and start up again 29/0300
UTC. Please refer to the High Seas forecast product under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...GALE WARNING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

A cold front extends from 31N40W to 22N55W. Gale-force winds are
north of 30N between 42W and 48W with seas 10 to 16 ft. Expect
the front to move east over the next 24 hours with gale-force
winds and seas up to 23 ft. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast
product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N10W to 04N20W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 00N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N-07N between 15W-21W, and within 120 nm of
the ITCZ between 30W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Radar imagery shows a squall line from central Georgia to the
Florida Panhandle near 31N87W to N Gulf of Mexico near 27N92W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is N of 27N
between 85W-92W. A cold front extends from S Louisiana near
29N91W to 26N96W to S of Tampico Mexico near 20N97W. Scattered
showers are within 30 nm of the front. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate winds over the western half of the basin while moderate
to fresh winds are noted over the eastern half.

The front will meander across the NW gulf waters through Sun
night. A secondary cold front will move off the Texas coast early
Mon and overrun the stationary front with the merged cold front
reaching from the Mississippi Delta to Veracruz Mexico on Tue, and
from the Port of Tampa to the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed. Strong to
near gale force northerly winds are forecast across the western
gulf waters on Tue night, increasing to minimal gale force along
the coast of Veracruz Mexico on Wed. A trough will develop over
the western Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon, move W across the SW
gulf during the overnight hours and lose identity by late each
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning
for the south-central Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the area. Low-
topped trade wind showers are quickly moving across the basin.

Strong to near gale force trade winds will prevail across the S
central Caribbean through Wed, increasing to gale force along the
NW coast of Colombia late each night through mid morning. Fresh to
strong easterly trades forecast elsewhere through Sun then
moderate to fresh trades expected next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1036 mb high is centered well N of the area over the W Atlantic
near 41N65W. Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic W of 70W
to include the Bahamas. A cold front is over the central Atlantic
from 32N39W to 23N50W to 20N60W, then becomes stationary from
that point to 20N70W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front mainly north of 30N. A 1033 mb high is centered well N of
the area over the E Atlantic near 42N15W.

Over the west Atlantic, a ridge extends from 31N70W to Central
Florida with fresh to strong winds across the entire area. The
pressure gradient will relax during the upcoming weekend as the
ridge shifts S to along 28N allowing a weak cold front to move
slowly into the northern NW waters on Mon. The front will stall on
Tue and gradually dissipate. Another cold front will move off the
N Florida coast on Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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