[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1213 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Gale-force winds are forecast along the coast of N Colombia. Gale
will start this evening 28/0000 UTC and be from 11N to 14N
between 72W and 78W with seas 10 to 15 ft. Please refer to the
High Seas forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...GALE WARNING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

A cold front will extends from 31N41W to 24N46W in 18 hours on
28/0600 UTC. With this, gale-force winds are expected north of 30N
between 47W and 53W. Seas in this area will range between 10 to 15
ft. Expect the front to move E over the next 24 hours with gale
force winds and seas up to 22 ft. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the prime meridian and 04N to
05N10W. The ITCZ continues from 05N10W to 01N30W to the coast of
Brazil near 01N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-02N
between 02W-10W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-06N
between 12W-21W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-04N
between 25W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 27/1500 UTC, a cold front is inland over S Texas. A
prefrontal squall line extends from SW Louisiana near 30N93W and
extends S to the NW Gulf at 29N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 45 nm of the squall line. A surface
trough continues along the Texas coast from 29N94W to 28N96W to
26N97W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the trough. 15-20 kt
northerly winds are N of the trough. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
southeasterly winds prevail across the basin, as noted in the
latest scatterometer data. Radar imagery shows widely scattered
moderate convection over the northeast Gulf north of 26N and E of
90W.

A cold front will move off the Texas coast today and stall and
meander across the NW gulf waters through the upcoming weekend,
then move E again early next week. A trough will develop over the
western Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon, move W across the SW
gulf during the overnight hours and lose identity by late each
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning
for the south-central Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the area. Low-
topped trade wind showers are quickly moving across the basin.

Strong to near gale force trade winds will prevail across the S
central Caribbean through Tue, increasing to gale force along the
NW coast of Colombia late each night through mid morning. Trade
winds will increase elsewhere across the entire region through Tue
as high pres builds over the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N43W to 27N50W to
23N70W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Another
reinforcing cold front is N of 32N moving SE. A 1031 mb high is
centered over the northeast Atlantic near 39N18W.

Over the W Atlantic, strengthening high pressure N of the area
will increase winds and build seas through Fri. The high center
will shift E and weaken as a weak cold stalls over the NW waters
on Sat night into Sun. A ridge will extend from 29N65W to central
Florida on Mon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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