[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Wed Dec 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Gale-force winds will pulse once again tonight across the south
central Caribbean within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. These
conditions will subside by the morning hours. Please refer to the
High Seas forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...GALE WARNING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

A cold front will extends from 31N38W to 24N44W in 48 hours. With
this, gale force winds are expected north of 28N and west of the front
to 51W. Seas in this area will range between 13-18 ft. Please refer to the
High Seas forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N40W
to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 02N-05N between 00W-05W, from 01N- 06N between 10W-18W,
and from 02N-05N between 24W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

15-20 kt easterly surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico in
high pressure return flow. A surface trough is over the Straits of
Florida from 25N80W to 22N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
of the trough. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection
over the NW Gulf from 26N-30n between 92W-95W.

High pressure northeast of the area will retreat eastward tonight
enabling a cold front to move off the Texas coast Thursday. The
front will stall and linger across the northwest gulf through
Saturday before a reinforcing front helps push the front
eastward. The reinforced front will extend from near the Florida
Big Bend to 24N95W to the western portion of the Bay of Campeche
Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along along the coast of Belize from 18N87W
to 15N88W. Scattered showers are over the north Caribbean north
of 15N, and over the Windward Islands south of 15N and east of
65W.

Strong trade winds will prevail across the south central
Caribbean through the period, increasing to gale force along the
NW coast of Colombia tonight. Trade winds will increase across
the entire region through the weekend as high pressure builds
over the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N46W to 28N57W to 28N71W. A
stationary front continues from that point to 27N74W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the fronts. A surface trough passes
through 32N38W to 25N56W with scattered showers. A 1027 mb high
is centered over the northeast Atlantic near 35N24W. A surface
trough is W of the Canary Islands from 31N18W to 27N21W.

Expect over the west Atlantic for a high pressure north of the
area to usher in increasing winds and building seas through the
end of the work-week. The high pressure center will shift
eastward and weaken this weekend, with a decrease in winds and
seas over the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/MF
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