[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 AM EST Wed Dec 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The forecast for 26/0000 UTC, consists of: GALE-FORCE NE-to-E
winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 14 feet, from now
until the early afternoon hours of Wednesday, today, in the
coastal waters of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W.
Expect that NE GALE-FORCE wind conditions will start again on
Wednesday night, with sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 16 feet,
from 11N to 13N between 74W and 78W. Expect NE-to-E GALE-FORCE
winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 15 feet, from 11N to
14N between 73W and 77W, on Thursday night. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02N30W,
to the Equator along 41W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 04N southward from 05W eastward, from
06N southward between 08W and 20W, and from 06N southward between
24W and 44W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 29N72W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to the east coast of Florida near 28N80W, to 28N86W in the
NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to broken low level and
middle level clouds and possible rainshowers cover the Gulf of
Mexico.

Surface high pressure will prevail across the forecast waters
through Wednesday before retreating eastward. This will enable a
cold front to move off the Texas coast on Thursday. The front
will stall and linger across the NW Gulf of Mexico through
Saturday, before a reinforcing front helps to push the first front
eastward. The reinforced front will extend from the Florida Big
Bend to 24N95W to the W Bay of Campeche on Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 21N82W to 18N84W, to eastern sections of
Honduras near 15N85W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 15N
northward from 80W westward, in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea,
mostly from 13N northward from 80W eastward, and from 15N
southward from 80W westward.

Strong trade winds will prevail across the S central Caribbean
Sea through Sunday night, increasing to GALE-FORCE along the NW
coast of Colombia at night. Trade winds will increase across the
entire region from Wednesday through Sunday night, as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic Ocean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N55W to 30N60W to 29N71W. The front
becomes stationary near 29N71W, and it continues to the east coast
of Florida near 28N80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the
NW of the line that passes through 32N50W to 28N60W, beyond 28N80W
at the east coast of Florida.

A central Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 32N36W to
27N50W 26N60W and 25N64W. The stationary front is dissipating from
25N64W to 24N70W to 23N74W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to
the NW of the line that passes through 32N30W to 24N50W 22N70W, to
the coast of Cuba near 21N76W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center
and trough are supporting a surface trough, that passes through
32N18W to 26N22W, and 20N30W. Rainshowers are possible to the NW
of the line that passes through 32N16W, to 18N30W 16N40W 16N50W
and 15N60W.

The current cold front, that extends from 29N65W to central
Florida, will stall along 28N tonight, where it will dissipate
gradually. Surface high pressure will build in the wake of the
front, and prevail through the end of the week, before retreating
eastward this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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