[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Dec 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Northeast gale-force winds are forecast to pulse each night
through at least Monday night near the coast of Colombia from 11N
to 13N between 73W and 77W, with seas ranging from 9 to 14 feet.
See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W
to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 02N30W to 01N40W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Numerous moderate/isolated strong
convection is seen south of 06N between 25W-42W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 07N between 24W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails over most of the basin, anchored by a
1025 mb high centered over northern Florida. Gentle to moderate
winds are observed across the Gulf as the ridge remains in
control. A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Bay of
Campeche. No significant precipitation is observed at this time.

The ridge will shift SE today. A weak cold front will move into
the NW waters this afternoon, then stall from the Florida Big
Bend to the Texas Coastal Bend on Mon, then gradually dissipate
through early Tue. Fresh return flow will set up across the NW
waters on Tue, with these conditions spreading E across the entire
Gulf waters by early Wed. Wed night, locally strong SE flow is
forecast to develop across the N-central waters ahead of a cold
front moving off the Texas coast early Thu. The cold front will
stall from the Mississippi Delta to central Mexico on Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from the Windward Passage to
15.5N80W. Isolated showers are from 17N-20N between 80W-83W.
Elsewhere, isolated showers are seen near the ABC Islands. The
GOES East mid and low level water vapor channels show that dry air
covers the eastern two-thirds of the Caribbean.

Strong to near gale force trades will continue across the
S-central Caribbean through Thu night, pulsing to gale force
along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours. The
weakening stationary front extending SW from the Windward Passage
to 15.5N80W will gradually dissipate today. Fresh to locally
strong NE flow will continue across the W Caribbean through late
Mon. Fresh to locally strong SE flow will develop across the NW
Caribbean on Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 32N61W to
24N69W, then continues as a stationary front to the Windward
Passage. No significant convective activity is seen near the
front. To the east, a cold front extends from 32N29.5W to 31N30W.
A surface trough continues from 31N30W to 27N34W to 24N39W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 25N between 26W-
32W. Another surface trough extends along 33W from 22N-26N.
Scattered showers are along this trough north of 23N.

Remnants of the front that extends from 28N65W to the Windward
Passage will drift NW on Mon and Tue. Moderate to fresh easterlies
are expected S of 28N on Tue, increasing to fresh to locally
strong on Wed and Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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