[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201127
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING GULF OF MEXICO...

A large area of gale force winds is expected to develop in the
Gulf of Mexico Thursday afternoon along and behind a vigorous
cold front. The gales will progress eastward through the Gulf,
exiting the Gulf by Friday evening. Areas north of 25N W of 91W
are forecast to experience gale force winds. Seas across portions
of the central Gulf will build to 13 ft by this afternoon and as
high as 21 ft tonight and Friday. Please read the HIGH SEAS
FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details.

...GALE WARNING ATLANTIC OCEAN...

S to SW gale force winds are expected in the western Atlantic in
advance of a cold front NW of a line from 31N75W to 27N80W with
seas 9 to 17 ft. The area of gales will expand significantly late
Thursday night and early Friday morning as the cold front moves
through the waters. Gale force winds are forecast through the NW
Bahamas southward to 25N and between 72W-80W, including near the
coast of South Florida. By late Friday, the gales will still be
occurring in the area. Seas in portions of the area will build to
10-20 ft late Thursday into Friday. Please read the HIGH SEAS
FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through northern Liberia near 07N10W to
04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 01N30W to the coast of
N Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
00N-05N between 20W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 20/0900 UTC a 1004 mb low is centered over S Alabama near
30N88W. A cold front extends S from the low to the central Gulf
near 25N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N96W. A warm front
extends E from the low to N Florida near 31N81W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the cold front. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are elsewhere over the E Gulf of
Mexico N of 24N and E of 85W to include most of Florida. In the
upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the W Gulf
producing diffluence over the E Gulf and enhancing convection.

The current cold front will move E across the central and eastern
gulf waters through Friday. Strong to near gale force southerly
winds will develop ahead of the front today, followed by gale
force westerly winds west of the front, with seas building to
20-21 ft across east-central waters tonight and Friday. High
pressure will shift eastward across the central gulf on Saturday,
then move into the Florida Panhandle on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Most of the Caribbean is currently experiencing fairly quiet
weather with only some light to moderate trade wind showers
N of Puerto Rico, and S of Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is
inland over N Colombia from 06N-09N.

Fresh to locally strong winds will continue across the south-
central Caribbean through Monday, with strongest winds to near
gale force on Saturday night. Strong southerly flow is expected
today ahead of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico, which will
enter the Yucatan Channel this evening. The front will reach from
Windward Passage to Costa Rica by Saturday morning, then drift
south and slowly dissipate through Sunday. Strong northerly winds
are expected west of the front on Friday, increasing to near gale
force Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N62W. A
cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N43W to 25N56W,
then continues as a stationary front to 24N70W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 120 nm E of front N of 28N. A 1028 mb
high is centered over the E Atlantic near 37N13W.

Strong to near gale force southerly flow north of the Bahamas
this morning will increase to minimal gale force N of 24N this
evening on both sides of a strong cold front moving off the SE
U.S. coast. The front will reach from 30N75W to central Cuba on
Friday, and from Bermuda to the Windward Passage on Saturday.
Winds and seas will diminish across the region Saturday and Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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