[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 PM EST Tue Dec 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from N Liberia near 06N11W to 04N17W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N30W to 00N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between 28W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low over southern NM is progressing eastward
supporting diffluence across northwest Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
showers associated to the upper low are observed north of 23N and
west of 90W. Along the northeast Gulf, a 1021 mb surface high is
centered near 30N88W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
prevail across the basin.

The upper-level low is forecast to intensify as it moves eastward
from Texas to the Carolinas Wednesday through Thursday night,
dragging a cold front across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions
are expected to rapidly deteriorate across the region by Thursday
afternoon as the low deepens. Gale-force winds are likely north
of 25N across the central Gulf through the end of the week. Seas
will build to a maximum around 20 ft on Friday over the central
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1015 mb surface low is centered over the west Caribbean near
16N82W. A weak frontal boundary is noted to the west of the low
from 18N87W to 21N78W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades across most of the Caribbean. Fresh to strong
winds are noted south of 15N between 72W-78W. These winds will
pulse every night through the period.

The weakening stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to
16N85W will dissipate tonight, then drift westward over the
Yucatan peninsula overnight as a surface trough. Fresh to strong
winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through
the weekend, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia
each night. A cold front associated with an intense low pressure
system north of the area will enter the northwest Caribbean
Thursday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N55W to
27N62W. A stationary front extends from that point to 21N76W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm east of the
front and north of 27N. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near
27N32W.

The western portion of the frontal system in the west Atlantic
will slowly drift northward Wednesday and Thursday as an intense
low pressure system develops over the southeast U.S. Gale-force
winds are likely north of 27N and east of Florida Thursday night
through Friday night both ahead and behind of a cold front
associated with the low. Maximum seas will build to around 20 ft
by Friday night west of 70W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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