[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180459
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1159 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 03N30W to 01N41W. A
surface trough is along 42W from 10N southward. The ITCZ resumes
from 01N44W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N-07N between 22W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf Coast and the Gulf of
Mexico, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered over S Louisiana near
30N91W. Although broken clouds cover much of the basin, little in
the way of shower activity is noted. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate winds across the basin.

A ridge will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico through Tue night
as a high pressure center moves from the Mississippi Valley
towards North Carolina. A low pressure system will move NE from
the coast of Texas Wed to the SE United States Thu, dragging a
cold front across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions are expected
to deteriorate across the region on Thu morning as the low
pressure deepens over the SE of United States. Strong to minimal
gale force winds are expected across the northern and central Gulf
Thu morning through Fri. Gale conditions are likely for the SE
Gulf Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1016 mb surface low is centered off the coast of Honduras near
17N85W. A stationary front extends north from the low to 22N77W
then into the west Atlantic. Scattered showers are within 90 nm west
of the front. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades
across the Caribbean. However, strong to near-gale winds will
pulse at night near the coast of Colombia. Gentle winds are
between eastern Cuba and Jamaica.

The stationary front over the west Caribbean will dissipate
tonight, and its remnants will then move westward as a trough
across the northwest Caribbean on Tuesday. The trough will reach
the Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night. The next cold front is
forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean by Thu morning and extend
from eastern Cuba to Jamaica to Costa Rica by Fri evening. The
front will then stall across the Windward Passage to the SW
Caribbean and dissipate Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N59W to
the S Bahamas near 23N75W. The front continues as stationary from
23N75W to eastern Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 90 nm east of the cold front mainly
north of 27N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the
front. Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a
1025 mb high centered near 28N26W.

The west Atlantic cold front will push E and extend from 31N55W
to NE of the Turks and Caicos by Tue evening. The western portion
of the front is forecast to lift northward Wed and dissipate ahead
of the next cold front entering the NW waters Thu afternoon.
Expect strong to gale force winds and building seas mainly across
the waters N of the Bahamas Thu afternoon through Sat morning as
the cold front moves across the region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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