[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
549 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front over the eastern Atlantic is analyzed from 31N23W to
26N38W to 22N53W. Latest scatterometer pass shows strong to near
gale force winds. The front will slowly move E across central
Cuba today, reaching eastern Cuba on Mon, then will dissipate
across the Caribbean waters on Tue. Fresh northerly winds are
expected west of the front across the Gulf of Honduras through
Mon. Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south-central
Caribbean through the forecast period, with the strongest winds
near the coast of Colombia mainly at night. Refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
01N30W. A surface trough is along 07N between 35W-36W. The ITCZ
resumes from 01N38W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection in
the vicinity of the trough extending 180 to 200 nm on either side
of the trough. Additional scattered moderate convection is
observed in the vicinity and within the ITCZ near Brazil south of
03N between 40W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold fronts that was on the eastern Gulf waters has moved
into the western Caribbean. Behind the front, a surface trough
extends from 29N78W to 24N82W. Scattered showers are possible near
the dissipating front. A surface trough is analyzed from 29N83W
to 25N88W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1026 mb surface high centered over northern
Mexico.

A ridge will persist across the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48
to 72 hours as a high pressure center moves from eastern Texas to
SE Louisiana by Sun evening, and toward the Florida Panhandle by
Mon evening. A low pressure system will move NE from the coast of
Texas Wed to the SE United States Thu, dragging a new cold front
across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions could deteriorate across
the region later on Thu as the low pressure deepens over the SE
of United States.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the western Atlantic into a stationary
front from western Cuba to 15N87W near the Gulf of Honduras. A
pre-frontal trough extends from 19N80W to 14N83W. Scattered
showers are noted over the northwest Caribbean and near the coast
of Honduras from mainly west of 80W.

Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the SW Caribbean, while an
upper-level trough is east of the Lesser Antilles. In between, dry
air covers the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.

A nearly stationary front is over the NW Caribbean and extends
from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. The front will slowly
move E across central Cuba today, reaching eastern Cuba on Mon,
then will dissipate across the Caribbean waters on Tue. Fresh
northerly winds are expected west of the front across the Gulf of
Honduras through Mon. Fresh to strong winds will persist across
the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with the
strongest winds near the coast of Colombia mainly at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the eastern Atlantic from 31N23W to
26N38W to 22N53W. A second front is beginning to dissipate north
of 30N and west of 78W. Scattered showers are noted east of the
cold front mainly north of 31N to 27N between 72W-76W. Behind the
front, scatterometer pass shows small area of strong to near gale
force winds between 32W to 37W. Scattered showers are noted along
the vicinity of the front south of 27N. To the east, another
front is analyzed as a cold front from 31N27W to 22N50W, then as a
stationary front continues from that point to to 23N59W to
27N68W. Scattered showers are observed along the cold front. A
surface trough is observed near the coast of Africa from 30N10W to
23N12W.

A cold front extends from 31N73W across the NW Bahamas to western
Cuba. The front will push E and extend from 31N70W across the
central Bahamas to central Cuba by this evening, from 28N65W to
eastern Cuba by Mon evening, and from 24N65W across the SE Bahamas
to eastern Cuba on Tue evening, then stall and dissipate over the
SE waters on Wed. Expect increasing winds and building seas
across the N waters on Thu as a low pressure system deepens over
the SE of United States.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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