[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141134
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 AM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the SE Louisiana coast
near 29N90W to 27N90W to 21N94W to the coast of Mexico near
20.5N97W, and inland into Mexico. Gale force winds to 40 kt are
occurring west of the front over the northwest and west-central
Gulf of Mexico, and this was confirmed by an ASCAT pass from 0300
UTC. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan
Channel tonight, and move SE of the basin on Sat. The gale force
winds will continue through this afternoon west of the cold
front, spreading southward through the west-central Gulf. Winds
are forecast to be below gale force by this evening. Seas of 12
to 16 ft are expected to affect waters today from 22N-28N between
90W-97W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Possible Gale off the coast of Morocco...

Strong to near gale force winds with localized winds to gale
force are expected today within 120 nm of the coast of Morocco
between 30N-32N in Agadir, according to the latest forecast from
Meteo France. These winds are being caused by a strong pressure
gradient between a strong low over the western Mediterranean Sea
and a 1030 mb high pressure to the west over the Atlantic near
32N18W. Winds will diminish by early Sat.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
08N15W to 03N22W to 00N34W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N-09N between the W
coast of Africa and 21W. Scattered showers are seen from 07N
southward between 40W and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front and associated gale force winds in the west-central
Gulf are described above in the Special Features section. A
strong, deep-layered low pressure system is located over east
Texas. CIRA Layered Precipitable Water imagery indicates that
southerly flow east of the low is drawing a large amount of moist
air northward from the western Caribbean into the NE Gulf of
Mexico. Ahead of the cold front, over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted
from 25N-30N between 82W-89W, including over the northern Florida
Peninsula and eastern Florida Panhandle. The convection is being
enhanced by strong upper-level divergence over the NE Gulf.
Elsewhere N of 24N and E of 90W, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen. A few showers are also over the western
Gulf behind the front.

Widespread heavy shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
continue today in the NE Gulf ahead of the front. Strong wind
gusts and locally enhanced seas are expected with the stronger
thunderstorms. Winds and seas will diminish this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Most of the Caribbean is relatively quiet with no significant
features or convection at this time. However, the monsoon trough
in the east Pacific, which is just south of Panama, is producing
isolated thunderstorms in the extreme SW Caribbean south of 10N
between 75W-81W. Elsewhere, some light trade wind showers are
seen in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and Trinidad.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the central
Caribbean through the weekend, with highest winds near the coast
of Colombia at night. A cold front will move through the Yucatan
Channel later today, then stall and dissipate over the NW
Caribbean this weekend. Strong north winds are forecast west of
the front across the Gulf of Honduras late tonight and Sat. Large
N swell will reach the Leewards on Sat, and spread south through
the Atlantic passages during the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the Atlantic east of Georgia
and northern Florida north of 29N and west of 79W. This activity
is from the same weather system that is producing widespread
strong thunderstorms over the NE Gulf of Mexico and northern
Florida. Elsewhere N of 28N and W of 78W, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are present. Expect strong thunderstorms
to become widespread in this area later today.

A cold front passes through 32N40W to 28N46W to 25N59W then
transitions to a stationary front at that point to 24N63W, then
transitions to a warm front at that point to 24N70W to 25N75W.
Isolated showers are possible along the front. Farther to the
southeast, a surface trough is analyzed from 27N43W to 17N47W.
Broken clouds and isolated showers accompany the trough.

The frontal boundary along 24N east of the Bahamas will drift
northward today and slowly dissipate. Strong to near gale force
southerly return flow will develop north of the Bahamas today
ahead of a strong cold front that will sweep east across the
northern waters during the weekend, reaching from Bermuda to
northwest Cuba Sun night and from 31N71W to central Cuba on Mon.
The front will then stall across the tropical waters north of the
Antilles on Tue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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