[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico
this afternoon. The forecast, from 13/1200 UTC, is for the cold
front to be along 30N93W 26N93W 21N97W. Expect W-to-NW GALE- FORCE
winds, and sea heights to 10 feet, N of 26N W of the cold front.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N13W, to 09N15W
05N20W 02N27W and 01N35W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 05N southward between 36W and 52W,
including in coastal sections of Brazil. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 08N southward from 22W
eastward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is digging through Texas. The trough is
supporting a cold front that is moving southeastward, across and
through Texas, toward the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are to the west and northwest of the line that
runs from north Florida near 30N82W, to the central Gulf of Mexico
near 24N90W, to the coast of Mexico near 20N96W.

Fresh to strong southerly wind flow will continue to the east of
a cold front that is moving off the Texas coast. The front will
reach from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche tonight,
from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Channel late on Friday,
and move through the Bahama Channel on Saturday. Strong to near
gale force northwesterly wind flow to the west of the front will
increase to gale force this evening in the northwest Gulf of
Mexico waters, with 30 to 40 knot wind conditions spreading south
across the west central Gulf late tonight into Friday. The
pressure gradient will relax on Friday night and Saturday, with
moderate west flow expected on Saturday evening as the sea heights
subside to less than 8 feet. The pressure gradient will continue
to relax, with light northerly winds on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is in the NW Caribbean Sea, along 20N83W 18N85W,
to 15N85W in eastern Honduras. Rainshowers are possible from 15N
northward from 80W westward.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 17N southward between 66W
and 75W, and to the east of the line that runs from Puerto Rico to
the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea, and around Jamaica. 24-hour
rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at
13/120000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.28 in
Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.04 in Guadeloupe, 0.03 in San Juan in
Puerto Rico.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/08N from 73W in Colombia beyond
84W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 12N southward from 75W westward. A middle level trough
also is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the south central
Caribbean Sea through the upcoming weekend, with nocturnal pulses
to near gale force off the northwest coast of Colombia. These
strong trade winds will expand northward across the entire
central Caribbean Sea on Friday and Friday night. The remnants of
a frontal trough will dissipate gradually in the northwest
Caribbean Sea through Friday. A cold front will enter the Yucatan
Channel on Friday afternoon, stall and then gradually dissipate
in the NW Caribbean Sea into early next week. Strong north winds
are forecast to the west of the front across the Gulf of Honduras
late Friday night and Saturday. Large north swell will reach the
Leeward Islands on Saturday, and spread southward through the
northeast Atlantic Ocean passages during the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N48W to 27N56W to 24N64W. The front
continues as stationary from 24N64W to 22N70W to SE Cuba. Broken
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the
west and NW of the line that runs through 32N44W to 23N60W to SE
Cuba.

One surface trough is along 42W from 17N to 25N. Scattered to
broken to low level clouds are on the western side of the trough.
Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 20N between 38W and 44W.

A second surface trough is along 56W/57W from 15N to 22N.
Rainshowers are possible from 08N to 22N between 54W and 62W.

The current frontal boundary will drift northward, and extend
east to west along 25N on Friday. The frontal boundary will wash
out, gradually, as it continues northward across the northeast
part of the area on Saturday. Strong to near gale southerly return
wind flow will develop north of the Bahamas tonight and on Friday.
Those will be the wind conditions ahead of another cold front
that will sweep east across the northern waters during the
upcoming weekend. The second cold front will reach a position
from Bermuda to northwest Cuba on Sunday night, and from 31N71W
to central Cuba on Monday. The front will stall as it passes
across the waters north of the Antilles on Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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