[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121132
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 AM EST Wed Dec 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 32N64W to 25N68W
to the SE Bahamas near 22N72W to eastern Cuba near 20.5N76W.
Scattered moderate convection is N of 30N between 58W-64W. Gale
force winds N of 29N between 60W-67W will be ending by 1200 UTC
this morning. Seas N of 29N between 55W-65W are 12 to 15 ft. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Gulf on Thu near 1200 UTC. The cold front will quickly reach
the eastern Gulf late Thu night, then push SE of the basin Fri
night. Strong to near gale force N winds will develop west of the
front, except reaching gale force Thu night into Fri over the
northwest and west-central Gulf waters. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 06N16W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
03N30W to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 00N-05N between 11W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is located in the SW Gulf from 23N97W to
19N95W. Otherwise, a 1027 mb high pressure is centered over SW
Georgia, with a surface ridge extending across most of the Gulf.
High, thick cirrus clouds are streaming into the western Gulf from
the west.

Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will prevail across
the western Gulf waters through early Thu ahead of a cold front
entering the northwest Gulf on Thu. Gale force winds are expected
with this front over the northwest and west-central Gulf Thu
night into Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 20.5N76W to
19N80.5W to the N coast of central Honduras near 16N86W. Isolated
showers are noted just west of the Cayman Islands. Scattered
showers are noted in the western Gulf of Honduras. Broken clouds
and isolated showers also cover much of Cuba and the Windward
Passage. In the eastern Caribbean, isolated showers are seen near
and just north of the ABC Islands. However, most of the eastern
Caribbean is relatively dry.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central
Caribbean through Sun night with nocturnal pulses to near gale
force off the northwest coast of Colombia. A stationary front
extending from E Cuba to the N coast of central Honduras will
gradually dissipate through Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds
will continue west of the front through this morning. Another cold
front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri afternoon, dissipating
over the NW Caribbean during the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning in the Atlantic associated with the cold front.
Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure extending from a 1026 mb high
pressure near 28N43W dominates the remainder of the basin E of
the cold fronts.

A strong ridge will build N of the area on Thu ahead of the next
cold front to come off Florida Fri evening. A ridge extending from
W to E along 29N on Wed will shift north setting up strong to
near gale southerly return flow north of the Bahamas on Thu night
and Fri, ahead of another cold front sweeping across the northern
waters during the upcoming weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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