[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111841
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extending from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
will stall from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras on Wed,
and gradually dissipate through Thu. Gale-force winds are expected
with this front north of 29N between 63W-73W Tue evening into
early Wed morning, along with seas of 10-15 ft. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will continue west of the front through Wed
morning. Another cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri
afternoon, dissipating over the NW Caribbean during the upcoming
weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W
to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N40W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 04N between 08W-19W. Scattered moderate/isolated
strong convection is seen south of 06N between 32W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1031 mb high pressure is centered over Louisiana and Mississippi.
The high extends a surface ridge across the entire Gulf. An
upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. extends southward over
the northern Gulf of Mexico. Broken low-level stratocumulus cover
the eastern and southern Gulf. The northwestern Gulf has cleared
out. The surface high pressure will continue to prevail over the
basin through midweek. The next cold front will move into the NW
Gulf Thu, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf late Thu night, then
pushing SE of the basin Fri night. Strong winds will follow the
front, possibly reaching gale force Thu night into Fri over the NW
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

In the northwest Caribbean, a cold front extends from central
Cuba near 21N78W to the N coast of Honduras near 15N87W. A
surface trough is located east of the front near 20N79W to
15N82W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity
of the trough and the frontal boundary near the coast of Honduras.
Water vapor imagery shows relatively dry air in the eastern and
central Caribbean, especially east of 81W and south of 16N.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central
Caribbean through Sat night with nocturnal pulses to near gale
force off the northwest coast of Colombia. A cold front extending
from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will stall from the
Windward Passage to eastern Honduras on Wed, and gradually
dissipate through Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
continue west of the front through Wed morning. Another cold
front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri afternoon, dissipating
over the NW Caribbean during the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from 31N60W to 23N75W
into the central Bahamas to central Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted 80 nm to the east of the front from
31N to 23N between 63W to 73W. A second cold front extends from a
1004 mb low near 33N72W to 29N79W. Broken clouds and scattered
showers cover much of the western Atlantic from the first front
westward. The weather is relatively quiet across the remainder of
the basin, with a 1030 mb high analyzed to the northeast near
39N107W. The surface ridge extends from this high westward to N of
Puerto Rico.

A cold front from 31N64W to central Cuba will be reinforced by a
second cold front today, with the merged boundary stalling from
26N65W to Hispaniola on Wed, and gradually dissipating north of
the Leewards on Thu. A strong wind shift will accompany the front,
with minimal gale conditions expected N of 29N and E of 72W
tonight. A ridge extending from W to E along 29N on Wed will shift
north setting up strong to near gale southerly return flow north
of the Bahamas on Thu night and Fri, ahead of another cold front
sweeping across the northern waters during the upcoming weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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