[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 PM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Six is centered near 13.8N 24.7W at 31/2100
UTC or 60 nm SSW of The Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving W
at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 10N-15N between 24W-30W.
See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W from 02N-13N, moving
west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 75 nm on
either side of the wave's axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from west Hispaniola near
20N73W to N Colombia near 11N75W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is over Hispaniola and Cuba, including the
Windward Passage, from 16N-20N between 71W-76W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 15N17W, through the
T.D. to 09N45W. The ITCZ is from 08N48W to the coast of South
America near 06N56W. See the Special Feature section and the
Tropical Wave section for convection. In addition, scattered
moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough between
28W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered over SE Louisiana/the north
central Gulf of Mexico near 28N89W. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are over the E Gulf of Mexico from 23N-30N between
82W- 90W. An upper-level high is centered over S Texas near
29N98W. Scattered showers are over the W Gulf of Mexico from
2423N-30N between 90W- 97W.

A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 34N68W. A
surface ridge extend W from the high to E Texas along 30N. This
ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into the weekend and support
gentle to moderate SE winds. A surface trough will develop each
evening in the Yucatan Peninsula. It will move W and offshore into
the SW Gulf of Mexico during the overnight hours. A surge of
moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this trough each
night.

Furthermore, an upper-level low will advect from the N Bahamas to
S Florida this weekend. Expect nocturnal thunderstorms over Sat
night and Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is centered S of Hispaniola near 17N72W is
enhancing convection over the island and adjacent waters. This
feature combines with a tropical wave and a surface trough that
extend across the island. Refer to the section above for more
information about the wave. The trough extends from 22N68W to
19N71W.

The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along
09N/10N from Costa Rica to Colombia. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N-12N between 80W-84W.

Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south
central Caribbean Sea during the next several nights. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave, currently
over Hispaniola, will move through the western Caribbean Sea by
late Sunday into early Monday with active weather. A second
tropical wave will move into eastern Caribbean Sea Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for information about the new T.D.
Six and the tropical wave.

An upper level low is centered over the N Bahamas near 25N75W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-29N between 71W-78W.

A surface trough has broken away from the Caribbean tropical wave
and extends NE of Hispaniola from 22N68W to 19N71W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 150 nm of this trough. This trough
is moving WNW towards S Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 34N68W. A
surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 30N56W to
27N57W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A 1025
mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N31W producing fair
weather.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Formosa/ERA
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