[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms moving off the coast of
Senegal are associated with a strong tropical wave and broad area
of low pressure.  A more well-defined low pressure system is
forecast to form between Senegal and the Cabo Verde Islands later
today after the tropical wave moves offshore over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean, and the low is likely to become a tropical
depression by the weekend while moving westward or west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.  This system is expected to bring
heavy rains and gusty winds to the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday and
Saturday, and interests on the islands should monitor the progress
of this disturbance. There is a medium chance of this system
developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. For
more information refer to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather
Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 36W from 15N
southward, moving west at 05-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 07N-09N between 36W-41W.

An E Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 22N65W to
08N67W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 15N-21N between 60W-70W affecting the NE Caribbean.

A tropical wave extends its axis over the Bay of Campeche along
92W between 06N-21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails over southern Mexico S of 19N between 94W-
100W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
11N16W to 10N30W to 08N40W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from
08N45W to the coast of South America near 06N55W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of W
Africa from 09N-15N between 15W-27W. Isolated moderate convection
is from 07N-09N between 44W-49W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low is centered over NE Mexico near 25N100W.
Another small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf of
Mexico near 30N86W. Patches of widely scattered moderate
convection is over most of the Gulf. At the surface, a ridge
extends along 30N producing 10-15 kt SE surface flow. A tropical
wave is over the Bay of Campeche. See above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. Refer to the section
above for details.

An upper level low is centered S of Hispaniola near 17N73W.
Upper level cyclonic flow covers the entire Caribbean. An area of
diffluent flow is over the NW Caribbean S of Cuba.

The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along
10N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. Numerous
strong convection is from 07N-11N between 72W-83W.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean,
before diminishing through Saturday. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low amplitude tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer
to the section above for details.

A 1022 mb high is centered W of Bermuda near 34N69W. A 1026 mb
high is centered near the Azores at 38N24W. Moderate to fresh
winds will be S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds will be N of
24N. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong just north of Hispaniola,
including the approach to the Windward Passage, during the
evening and overnight hours through the weekend. A tropical wave
over the east Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters will produce
active weather as it moves westward across the Lesser Antilles and
Bahamas through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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