[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 23W from 04N-
20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded within the
broad monsoonal trough region of W Africa. Satellite imagery
shows scattered moderate isolated strong convection in the
vicinity of the wave between 19W-27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 54W from 04N-20N,
moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a rather stable and dry
environment. Isolated showers are noted along the wave axis from
10N-14N.

A tropical wave axis in the eastern Caribbean is along 66W from
05N-21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted by
model guidance and surface observations.  Scattered showers are
noted south of 14N in the southeast Caribbean.

A tropical wave axis in the western Caribbean is south of 20N
along 87W, moving west at 15 kt. Upper-level cyclonic flow west
of 77W is enhancing convection in this area. Scattered moderate
convection prevails south of 14N between 79W-86W affecting
Central America and adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Africa
near 12N16W to 09N28W to 11N39W. The ITCZ continues from 11N39W
to 13N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
within 90 nm south of the trough axis between 26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough extends from NE Florida to 23N83W. A ridge
prevails over the basin from western Florida to southern Texas.
Moist conditionally unstable air across the basin is enhancing
scattered showers. The strongest activity is north of 24N
between 86W and 92W. An upper low centered over central Cuba is
also enhancing convection over the Florida peninsula.

A surface trough will develop during the evening hours over the
Yucatan Peninsula, then push offshore into the SW Gulf of Mexico
at night. A surge of moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
will accompany the trough, and enhance convective activity.
Gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper low centered over central
Cuba near 20N81W, along with abundant tropical moisture, is
inducing scattered showers across Cuba. Convective activity will
gradually shift westward as the upper low tracks moves to the W.

The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough stretches
across Panama to Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are south of 14N between 79W-86W.

Fresh to strong winds and building seas to 10 feet will continue
in the south-central Caribbean Sea through Wed. A tropical wave
along 66W will bring fresh easterly winds and build seas to 7-8
ft as it moves across the basin. Another wave will enter the
eastern Caribbean on Wed, increasing the likelihood of scattered
showers and thunderstorms over much of the Lesser Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section
above for details. An upper low centered over the NW Caribbean
is enhancing convection across the western Atlantic W of 77W. A
surface trough is over Florida, and another trough was noted in
scatterometer data from 31N43W to 28N48W. The remainder of the
basin is influenced by a broad surface ridge N of 30N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell
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