[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical is just west of the African coast
with its axis along 21W from 04N-20N, moving westward at 10-15
kt. The wave is embedded within the broad monsoonal trough region
of W Africa. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection
in the wave's vicinity between 14W-23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W from 04N
to 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is surrounded by a
rather stable and dry environment. Isolated showers are noted
along the wave's axis from 08N-14N.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean, with axis
along 62W between 05N-20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is
well depicted by model guidance and surface observations.
Scattered showers are noted within this wave mainly south of 10N
affecting eastern Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 83W and south
of 20N, moving westward at about 15 kt. The upper-level cyclonic
flow prevails across the western Caribbean west of 77W enhancing
convection in this area. Scattered moderate convection prevails
south of 14N between 79W-86W affecting Central America and
adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Africa
near 17N17W to 10N26W to 09N49W. Aside from convective activity
associated with the far eastern Atlantic tropical wave, scattered
moderate convection is within 75 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough between 25W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough extends from northeastern Florida to
23N83W, At the surface, a ridge prevails across the basin
anchored by a 1023 mb high centered over northern Georgia. Very
moist and unstable atmosphere is noted across the basin enhancing
scattered showers. The strongest activity prevails north of 25N
between 86W-92W. An upper-level low is centered over central Cuba
enhancing convection across the Florida Peninsula and Keys mainly
east of 82W.

A surface trough will develop during the evening hours over the
Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico each night. This trough, in combination with
Sunday's daytime heating acting on ample instability in place,
will trigger off scattered moderate convection over much of the
Peninsula and the eastern Bay of Campeche. A surge of moderate to
fresh northeast to east winds will accompany this trough. A weak
surface ridge will continue over the rest of basin, with its
associated gradient supporting a mainly gentle to moderate wind
flow regime.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tow tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper-level low is centered over
central Cuba near 20N81W. This feature, along with abundant
tropical moisture, is inducing scattered showers currently
affecting the island and the southeast Gulf of Mexico. The
activity will gradually shift from east to west as the upper low
tracks further away to the W.

The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough
stretches eastward into the far southwestern Caribbean to the
northwestern coast of Colombia. This, combined with a tropical
wave along 83W, are supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms are south of 14N between 79W-86W.

Fresh to strong winds, and building seas to 10 feet, will continue
in the south central Caribbean Sea through mid-week. The tropical
wave near the Lesser Antilles will continue moving across the
basin accompanied by fresh easterly winds and wave heights
expected to max out around 8 ft. Another wave will enter the
eastern Caribbean early on Wed, increasing the likelihood of
scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the Lesser
Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper level low is centered over the
northwestern Caribbean enhancing scattered moderate convection
across the west Atlantic mainly west of 77W. A surface trough was
noted in current observations extending over the northern Bahamas
from 29N77W to 25N79W. To the east, another trough was noted in
scatterometer data, extending from 27N67W to 23N69W. Moderate
winds are noted with this trough between 67W-69W. A weak cyclonic
surface rotation is noted between 40W-50W and north of 28N with
scattered showers. A surface trough was analyzed in this area. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad surface
ridge, anchored by a three surface highs aligned along 32N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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