[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 AM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W from 02N-
20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within a very
dry and stable environment which is inhibiting significant
convection at this time. Scattered showers are noted where the
wave meets the monsoon trough along and south of 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending along 57W
from 02N-20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is also
embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused by
Saharan Air Layer that is spreading westward across the Atlantic.
A few showers are developing along 10N.

A west Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 79W south of
20N to 03N79W. The wave is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed with the portion of the wave
south of 12N, and over the northern portion of the wave affecting
Cuba, Jamaica and adjacent waters.

A tropical wave has its axis along 91W south of 20N, moving
westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the
portion of the wave located over the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered
showers are noted along 08N due to the monsoon trough's
interaction with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
10N45W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 07N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed east of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends across the northern gulf
waters along 28N. A pre-frontal trough extends from central
Florida near 27N82W to 25N89W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails along the trough. To the southwest, a tropical wave is
enhancing convection across the Yucatan Peninsula. Refer to the
section above for details. The pressure gradient across the Gulf
supports light winds throughout, with a wind shift along the
frontal system. In the upper levels, an upper level high centered
over southern Texas is producing NE upper level winds over the
Gulf with upper level moisture. Expect the front to dissipate
during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section
above for details. An upper-level low is centered near the Cayman
Islands at 19N84W. The low is enhancing scattered convection near
the upper-low center and the tropical wave along 79W. Scattered
moderate convection is over the southwest Caribbean S of 12N
affecting Panama and Costa Rica.

Expect strong nocturnal pulses of wind through the upcoming
weekend along the coast of Colombia and Venezuela with seas
building to 9 ft. The next tropical wave will enter the eastern
portion of the basin during the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. A stationary front is off the coast of
northern Florida from 30N81W to 32N76W. Scattered moderate
convection is north of 28N and west of 76W. To the east,
scattered showers are over the west Atlantic from 25N-30N between
67W-74W due to an upper-level low centered near 25N72W. A surface
trough extends over the central Atlantic from 24N57W to 21N60W.
Scattered showers are noted along the trough. Another trough
extends from 32N34W to 26N37W. Saharan dust and associated dry
air, although not as dense as in previous days, is noted mainly
east of 60W on GOES-16 GEO color dust imagery. The dust is keeping
convection limited to non-existent across most of the Atlantic
waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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