[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
146 PM EDT Thu Aug 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W from
04N-20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within a
very dry and stable environment which is inhibiting convection at
this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending along 52W
from 05N-20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is also
embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused by
Saharan Air Layer outbreak of the past several days that is
spreading westward across the central and eastern Atlantic.
Scattered showers are noted south of 10N where the wave meets the
ITCZ.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W south of 20N
to north Colombia. It is moving westward at 20 kt. No significant
convection is observed within the wave at this time.

A tropical wave has its axis along 88W south of 19N, moving westward
near 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
12N17W to 08N22W to 10N40W to 09N51W. The ITCZ axis begins at
09N53W and continues to the coast of South America near 07N58W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 07W-
17W. Scattered showers are noted elsewhere within 180 nm either
side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is over the N Gulf of Mexico from 31N80W to 29N83W. A
stationary front continues to 27N90W to 29N95W. A pre-frontal
trough extends from N Florida near 29N82W to the NE Gulf near
26N86W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of
the pre-frontal trough. A 1018 mb high is located over the
northwest Gulf near 25N95W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over
the Bay of Campeche from 17N-20N between 93W-96W. The present
pressure gradient across the Gulf supports light winds throughout,
with a windshift along the frontal system. In the upper levels, an
upper level high centered over Texas near 32N99W is producing NE
upper level winds over the Gulf with upper level moisture. Expect
the front to become quasi-stationary until Fri and dissipate on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper level low is centered over the
Cayman Islands near 19N81W. The low is producing scattered showers
near the upper low center and is enhancing convection over the
SW Caribbean due to upper level diffluence. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 12N to
include Panama and Costa Rica. Elsewhere, scattered showers are
over the SE Caribbean from 11N-15N between 61W-68W.

Expect strong nocturnal pulses of winds through the upcoming weekend
along the coast of NE Colombia and W Venezuela with seas building to
9 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. A cold front is off the coast of N
Florida from 32N79W to 31N80W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 27N-32N west of 75W. Scattered showers are over
the west Atlantic from 25N-29N between 65W-72W due to an upper
level low centered near 26N72W. A surface trough extends over the
central Atlantic from 27N57W to 19N58W. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the trough. A 1024 mb high is analyzed near 37N51W.
Saharan dust and associated dry air, although not as dense as in
previous days, is noted mainly east of 60W on GOES-16 GEO color
dust imagery. The dust is keeping convection limited to non-existent
across the eastern and central Atlantic waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa/Hagen
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