[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 AM EDT Wed Aug 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has moved off the African coast with axis along
23W between 05N-20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is
embedded within a very dry and stable environment inhibiting
convection at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending along 42W
from 05N-18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is also
embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused by
Saharan Air Layer outbreak migrating westward across the central
and eastern Atlantic. Isolated showers are noted within 75 nm
either side of the wave axis along 11N.

A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean with axis
extending along 62W between 07N-19N, moving westward near 10-15
kt. No significant convection is observed with this wave at this
time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has been introduced to this map
after analyzing satellite imagery and latest model guidance. This
wave's axis extends along 73W between 10N-20N. Scattered moderate
convection is observed across Hispaniola and over the southern
portion of the wave, affecting northern Colombia.

A tropical wave has its axis extending across the Yucatan
Peninsula along 90W and south of 21N, moving westward at near 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is over Central America and
Yucatan Peninsula between 84W-92W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
17N16W to 10N37W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm north
of the ITCZ boundary between 48W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico along
26N anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 26N92W. This is
maintaining light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas. Gentle to
moderate easterly flow is noted elsewhere south of the ridge.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed over the far
southwest section of the gulf in association with the Yucatan
Peninsula's tropical wave. Refer to the section above for details.
Expect for this convective activity to remain active through
the night. High pressure ridging will remain across the northern
gulf waters, with the associated gradient producing gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper level trough extends across
the west Caribbean enhancing convection across Cuba and adjacent
waters north of 18N and west of 75W. The pressure gradient across
the area will maintain fresh to strong winds over the south
central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia and across the Gulf of
Venezuela through Thursday. Moderate to fresh trades will
continue elsewhere through this period also.

Expect for the tropical waves to continue moving west enhancing
convection. Little change is expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Over the western Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from near
28N78W to 25N79W. Scattered showers are noted near this trough
affecting the northern Bahamas. Two tropical waves are moving
across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. Another
trough extends from 31N45W to 25N52W. A 1025 mb high center is
analyzed north of 31N and extends a ridge across the remainder of
the basin. The trough extending across the central Bahamas will
continue westward through this evening. The aforementioned shower
and thunderstorm activity is forecast to persist through mid-week.
Saharan dust and associated dry air, as also mentioned above
under Tropical Waves, is noted mainly east of about 60W on GOES-16
Saharan Air Layer animation is inhibiting convection from
developing across the eastern and central Atlantic waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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