[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211739 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Corrected position of first tropical wave

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...Corrected

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
05N36W to 13N36W to 19N37W, moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between
25W and 32W.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean has its axis along
63W/64W south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection trails the wave within 30 nm of a line from
11N59W to 11N62W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis extending along 83W
and south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Only isolated
showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm east of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from coast of Senegal near 14N16W
to 10N20W, then to 08N40W. The intertropical convergence zone
continues westward to the mouth of the Orinoco River near 09N61W.
No significant convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging reaches across the northern Gulf of Mexico along
roughly 27N, maintaining light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft
seas. Gentle to moderate easterly flow is noted elsewhere south
of the ridge. Latest NWS mosaic radar display shows isolated
showers and thunderstorms across much of the eastern part of the
gulf, mainly due to a weak trough over that area. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are active along the coast of
Mexico in the far southwest Gulf, related to the normal
evening/overnight trough that sets up off Yucatan and moves
westward, but also largely enhanced by an upper low centered over
the southwest Gulf.

The Yucatan surface trough will persist each afternoon, then
drift westward across the southwest gulf waters during the
overnight hours accompanied by a fresh east to southeast wind
shift with the trough dissipating along 96W during the late
mornings. Otherwise, high pressure ridging will remain
across the northern gulf waters, with the associated gradient
producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient across the area will maintain fresh to
strong winds over the south central Caribbean off the coast of
Colombia and across the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu. Moderate
to fresh trades will continue elsewhere through Thu.

The tropical wave along 83W will move across the rest of
the western Caribbean tonight. The tropical wave along 63W/64W
will move across the eastern Caribbean  through Wed night and
enter the eastern part of the central Caribbean Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Over the western Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from near
30N72W to 24N76W in the central Bahamas, supported in part by an
upper trough over the same area. Another trough extends from
32N57W to 27N67W, and another one from near 32N42W to 24N51W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 23N
between 59W and 75W. The subtropical ridge is displaced slightly
north to along 31N, north of the troughs.

High pressure ridging will continue over the basin through the
next several days. The trough extending across the central
Bahamas will continue westward through this evening. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms along and near the trough will
affect mainly the western and northwestern sections of the Bahamas
through tonight.

Farther east, a 1027 mb high center is located near 34N41W. The
associated gradient supports generally moderate north to
northeast winds north of 20N. Saharan dust and associated dry
air noted mainly east of 50W is inhibiting convection from
developing across the eastern and central Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net