[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170451
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1251 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Ernesto at 17/0300 UTC is near 44.1N
38.9W, or 1145 km/620 nmi to the E of Cape Race in Newfoundland,
1205 km/650 nmi to the NW of the Azores. Ernesto is moving NE, or
55 degrees, 19 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts
to 50 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
cover the waters from 42N to 46N between 36W and 40W. Please read
the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 17N
southward. Rainshowers are possible within 360 nm on either side
of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 20N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 07N to 15N between 50W and 60W. Some development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days, while the
tropical wave moves west-northwestward 15 mph toward the Windward
Islands. Unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the
chances for additional development, while the system moves across
the eastern Caribbean Sea by late Saturday. It is likely that
this system may bring locally heavy rainfall to parts of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday and Saturday.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W from 20N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea
from the Greater Antilles southward between 60W and 73W.

A tropical wave is along 90W/91W, at the western edge of the
Yucatan Peninsula, from 22N southward. Warming cloud top
temperatures and weakening convective precipitation, and lingering
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
the Gulf of Mexico and the coastal plains of the western part of
the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N southward between land and 93W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W, to 09N23W, and 09N33W. The ITCZ continues from
09N33W to 12N42W, and 12N49W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 06N to 15N from 50W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico from 23N southward from the Yucatan Channel westward.
Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening convective
precipitation, and lingering widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico and the coastal
plains of the western part of the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N
southward between land and 93W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 31N69W, across Florida just to the north of Lake
Okeechobee, into the east central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of
Mexico along 20N in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the waters
from 23N northward from 90W eastward.

An east-to-west oriented surface ridge extends across the Gulf
waters along 28N. The ridge is accompanied by gentle to moderate
anticyclonic wind flow, that is expected to increase to a fresh
southerly breeze across the northwest waters, from Sunday night
through early Monday. A surface trough will develop along the
Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons, then drift westward
across the SW Gulf waters during the overnight hours. The trough
will be accompanied by a fresh east-to-southeast wind shift, with
the trough dissipating along 96W during the late mornings.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 14N northward from 79W westward.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
the Windward Passage westward.

Nocturnal near gale force easterly trade winds are expected along
the northwest coast of Colombia overnight, and then again on
Friday night. A tropical wave along 68W will continue westward
across the central Caribbean tonight, and pass through the western
Caribbean waters during the upcoming weekend. A second tropical
wave will reach along 55W on Friday, and pass through the eastern
Caribbean Sea on Saturday and Sunday. The tropical wave will be
accompanied by locally strong rainshowers through early Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N37W, to 27N44W, to an
Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center that is near 25N53W. A
surface trough is along 32N55W 28N57W 25N60W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 30N northward between 44W and
57W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward
between 30W and 60W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is on either
side of the 32N55W-to-25N60W surface trough.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the Atlantic Ocean from the Greater Antilles
northward from 60W westward. A few individual cyclonic circulation
centers near 27N63W, and near 21N70W.

An east to west ridge extends from 30N65W to 28N81W. Light
southerly winds are to the north of the ridge. Fresh trade winds
are to the south 23N, except becoming locally strong along the
north coast of Hispaniola during the late afternoon into early
evening hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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