[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto at 16/0900 UTC is near
40.8N 44.1W, or 975 km to the SE of Cape Race in Newfoundland.
Ernesto is moving NNE at 11 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35
knots with gusts to 45 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
from 38N to 43N between 40W and 45W. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 21W, from 04N-20N. There is no convection
associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is along 48W, from 03N-18N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-17N between 47W-58W.

A tropical wave is along 61W, from 09N-21N. There is no convection
associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is along 89W S of 22N. This wave stretches into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. There is no convection associated with
this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near
12N16W to 08N30W. The ITCZ begins near 08N30W and continues to
07N40W to 09N47W then resumes near 08N49W to 07N57W. For
convection information see the tropical waves section.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low is centered SE of Louisiana supporting
isolated rainshowers in the NE Gulf. Middle level diffluent flow
support scattered showers and tstms in the SE basin.

A surface ridge that extends westward from the Atlantic Ocean
into the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue across the region
into early next week. A nocturnal surface trough will move off the
Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night,
accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from an Andros Island cyclonic
circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that
is in northern Belize, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the
areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow with the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/08N from 75W in Colombia beyond
84W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 15N southward from 72W westward, in an area of middle
level to lower level cyclonic wind flow.

A surface ridge, that is across the western Atlantic Ocean, will
maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea into early next week. Gentle to moderate
trade winds are expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N44W, in the central
Atlantic Ocean, to 27N47W, to an Atlantic Ocean cyclonic
circulation center that is near 22N60W, to a cyclonic circulation
center that is along the coast of the Dominican Republic near
19N69W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea
from 15N northward between 60W and the Windward Passage, and it
spans the Atlantic Ocean within 240 nm on either side of the line
that passes through 32N44W 27N50W 22N60W, to the northern coast of
Puerto Rico along 66W/67W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in
the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. A surface trough
extends from a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 33N57W,
through 30N58W, to 25N64W.

An upper level trough extends from an Andros Island cyclonic
circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that
is in northern Belize, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the
areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow with the trough.

Surface high pressure will continue across the area through
Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MF/NR
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