[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto at 16/0300 UTC is near
39.7N 45.1W, or 1010 km/545 nm, to the SE of Cape Race in
Newfoundland. Ernesto is moving NNE, or 25 degrees, 09 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 35N to
42N between 41W and 45W. Please read the latest NHC forecast/
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W, from 20N southward.
Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on either side of the
wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W, from 18N.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
within 600 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W/60W, from 22N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N southward
between 58W and 65W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow also spans
the area of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W, from 22N
southward. This wave stretches from the NE corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula beyond Honduras, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. This
wave is moving through the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow
that is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 08N30W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N30W to 08N40W, to 09N47W, 07N54W, and to 07N58W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 15N southward from 60W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough and its accompanying cyclonic wind flow
cover the areas from east central Louisiana to the Texas coastal
plains/coastal waters.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico to the
south of the line that runs from the Florida Keys, to 25N86W,
to 24N93W, to 24N97W at the coast of Mexico. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are to the east of the line that runs from SE
Louisiana along 90W, to the coast of Mexico near 25N97W.

The surface ridge, that extends westward from the Atlantic Ocean
into the northern Gulf of Mexico, will continue across the region
into early next week. A nocturnal surface trough will move off the
Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night,
accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from an Andros Island cyclonic
circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that
is in northern Belize, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the
areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow with the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/08N from 75W in Colombia beyond
84W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 15N southward from 72W westward, in an area of middle
level to lower level cyclonic wind flow.

A surface ridge, that is across the western Atlantic Ocean, will
maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea into early next week. Gentle to moderate
trade winds are expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N44W, in the central
Atlantic Ocean, to 27N47W, to an Atlantic Ocean cyclonic
circulation center that is near 22N60W, to a cyclonic circulation
center that is along the coast of the Dominican Republic near
19N69W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea
from 15N northward between 60W and the Windward Passage, and it
spans the Atlantic Ocean within 240 nm on either side of the line
that passes through 32N44W 27N50W 22N60W, to the northern coast of
Puerto Rico along 66W/67W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in
the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. A surface trough
extends from a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 33N57W,
through 30N58W, to 25N64W.

An upper level trough extends from an Andros Island cyclonic
circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that
is in northern Belize, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the
areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow with the trough.

Surface high pressure will continue across the area through
Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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