[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/24W, from 20N
southward, moving west 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
in the monsoon trough area. It is possible that any precipitation
may be more related to the monsoon trough than to just the
tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W from 21N
southward, moving west 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted in model
diagnostics and 700 mb streamline analysis, and TPW imagery shows
moderate moisture in its vicinity. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 10N to 13N between 40W and 43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 21N
southward, moving west 15-20 kt. This wave is also depicted in
model diagnostics. It is possible that any precipitation may be
more related to the monsoon trough than to just the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W from 22N
southward, moving west 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are between Jamaica and SE Cuba. It is possible that
this precipitation may be more related to the current upper level
cyclonic wind flow than to just the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of NW
Mauritania near 21N17W, to 16N21W 10N26W and 10N40W. The ITCZ is
along 08N between 45W and 55W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 07N to 11N between land and
22W, and from 04N to 10N between 26W and 38W, and from 07N to 11N
between 47W and 63W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb
high centered near 28N88W. With this, a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow prevails across the area. To the southwest, a
surface trough extends over the Bay of Campeche from 23N93W to
19N92W.

A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the
Yucatan Peninsula before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each
night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will
accompany this trough. It will become weaker by mid-week. High
pressure, elsewhere, generally will support light to moderate E
to SE winds in the remainder of the basin through Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is centered near 21N80W. This feature is
enhancing convection across the northwest Caribbean waters mainly
north of 18W and west of 79W, including western Cuba. A tropical
wave is along 72W. The monsoon trough extends along 10N between
76W- 82W. Scattered showers are in Panama and Costa Rica.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. Strong
to minimal gale force winds are expected along the coast of
Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela through early this morning. Winds
and seas in the Caribbean Sea will subside during mid-week as the
western Atlantic Ocean high pressure weakens slightly.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level low is centered in the northwestern Caribbean Sea
near 21N80W. This feature is also enhancing convection across the
western Atlantic Ocean, mainly across the Bahamas. Three tropical
waves are moving across the basin. The remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high
centered near 31N61W and another 1026 mb high near 34N35W.

The surface ridge will remain in place during the next several
days. This ridge will help to maintain fresh to locally strong
winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola and in the
approaches to the Windward Passage, during the evening and
nighttime hours. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow will
continue N of 23N, while mainly moderate easterly wind flow will
prevail S of 23N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
era/mt
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