[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is W of the Cape Verde Islands along
27W S of 20N, moving W at 10-15 knots. This wave is associated
with a 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-
11N between 24W-29W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W S of 12N, moving W
at 15 knots. This is a low amplitue and low latitude wave. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 07N-11N between 37W-48W.

An E Caribbean tropical wave is along 60W S of 18N, moving W at
15-20 knots. A well-defined inverted V surface pattern is apparent
on satellite imagery. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 17N16W to 10N30W to
06N40W. The ITCZ extends W of a tropical wave from 05N43W to
the coast of S America near 04N51W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-11N between 30W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the E Gulf of Mexico near 26N86W.
10 kt anticyclonic surface winds are over the E Gulf. A surface
trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N93W to 17N93W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the trough axis

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N84W, over
the SE Gulf. Scattered showers remain over S Florida. Another
upper level cyclonic circulation center is over Mexico near
20N101W. Upper level diffluence is over the Bay of Campeche
enhancing convection.

High pressure ridging will prevail across the area through early
next week, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the western
and central Gulf. A nocturnal trough moving off the Yucatan
peninsula will induce a surge of fresh to strong NE to E winds in
the Bay of Campeche each night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. Scattered
showers remain over Hispaniola. More scattered showers are over
the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, and El Salvador.

The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough extends over
Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia along 09N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N-11N between 75W-86W.

The base of an upper level low is over the NE Caribbean enhancing
showers. A large upper level high is centered over the Gulf of
Honduras near 17N86W. Anticyclonic upper level winds are W of 75W.

High surface pressure north of the area will support fresh to
strong winds over the south central Caribbean through early next
week. The tropical wave over the E Caribbean will reach the
central Caribbean Sun, and pass west of the region on Tue. Another
tropical wave will move into the E Caribbean on Mon. Winds will
approach gale force Sun night NW of the coast of Colombia as the
pressure gradient tightens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A small area of scattered moderate convection is over the W
Atlantic from 29N-32N between 72W-75W due to the southern extent
of a surface trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is under high
pressure ridging from a 1030 mb high centered over the E Atlantic
near 38N23W to the W Atlantic near 25N63W.

An upper level low is centered N of the Leeward Islands near
23N67W. Elsewhere, the base of an upper level low is over the
central Atlantic N of 27N between 45W-60W enhancing showers.

Over the W Atlantic, ridging along 26N will shift southward
tonight ahead of a trough moving off the southeast coast of the
U.S. through Fri. The ridge will then move N to 28N through early
next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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