[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Tropical Storm Debby...

The center of Tropical Storm Debby, at 09/1500 UTC, is near 44.5N
43.1W. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Debby
is moving NE or 55 degrees, 15 knots. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 42N to 44N
between 42W and 45W. Debby is expected to continue moving
northeastward while weakening. Debby is forecast to dissipate on
Friday. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/24W from 20N
southward, moving W 15 knots, across the Cabo Verde Islands.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers in the monsoon trough
are from 10N to 12N between 23W and 28W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N to 14N
between 18W and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 12N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 08N to 10N between 35W
and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 18N
southward, moving W 20 knots. A well-defined inverted V surface
pattern is apparent in satellite imagery. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are within 180 nm on either side of
the line that runs from 20N51W to 14N56W to 09N60W.

A tropical wave is inland, from the eastern part of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico southward, through Guatemala, into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm
on either side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania
near 17N16W, to 12N24W, 10N31W, and 09N37W. The ITCZ continues
from 09N39W to 08N50W. Rainshowers are possible from 08N southward
between 30W and 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends from central Florida near 28N82W,
southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico, toward the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N84W, in the
SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate
rainshowers cover the area from 25N northward from 90W eastward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in interior Mexico
near 20N100W.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the waters, to the north of
the line that runs from 22N97W at the coast of Mexico, to SE
Louisiana along 90W.

A surface trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula from the
early evenings to overnight hours during the next several days.
The surface trough will be accompanied by a surge of fresh to
occasionally strong winds. A surface ridge will prevail elsewhere
across the area into early next week. The ridge will support
moderate to fresh SE flow in the west central Gulf of Mexico, and
off the coast of Texas early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 16N
northward between SE Cuba and 60W. An upper level trough passes
through 22N67W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 16N66W in the Caribbean
Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 09N73W in Colombia, through NW Panama,
and beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Scattered strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that
runs from 03N78W at the coast of Colombia, to 06N86W, and 10N88W,
in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are possible from 12N
southward from 74W westward.

High pressure that is to the north of the area will support fresh
to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through early
next week. One tropical wave will approach the Windward Islands
and the Leeward Islands today, moving through the central
Caribbean Sea by Sunday, and west of the region early next week.
A second tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea
and the central Caribbean Sea on Monday. The winds will approach
approach minimal gale force again on Sunday night NW of the Coast
of Colombia as the pressure gradient tightens temporarily.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical storm Debby is in the north-central Atlantic Ocean.
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details.

An upper level trough extends from Bermuda to 22N67W to 16N66W in
the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N
northward between 60W and 70W.

An upper level trough extends from a 34N50W cyclonic circulation
center to 30N51W and 27N58W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of the line
that runs from 28N59W to 29N52W beyond 32N48W.

A surface trough passes through 33N74W to 31N77W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 27N northward from 70W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that
is near 39N23W, through 32N36W, to 28N49W, to 28N74W, to Florida
near 28N81W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic
Ocean from 20N northward between Africa and the eastern coast of
the U.S.A.

The current 28N surface ridge will shift southward to 25N today.
The ridge will be to the east of a trough, that will be moving off
the southeastern coast of the U.S.A. through Friday. The ridge
then will move N to 28N through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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