[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 082033
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018
500 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018

Satellite images indicate that Debby's circulation is becoming
elongated and the low-level center is on the northeastern edge of an
area of moderate convection.  A blend of the satellite intensity
estimates, and data from an earlier ASCAT pass yields an intensity
of 35 kt at this time.  Debby is already moving over cooler waters,
so additional weakening is anticipated, and the circulation should
should open up into a trough on Thursday. In fact, this is the
solution of the GFS and the ECMWF models.

Satellite fixes indicate that Debby is moving toward the northeast
or 040 degrees at 13 knots.  The cyclone is well embedded within the
southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough, and this pattern
should continue to steer Debby northeastward with some increase in
forward speed.  The track models continue to be in pretty good
agreement.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 42.0N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 43.5N  45.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 45.5N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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