[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A gale warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. A
strong Atlantic ridge west of 60W will tighten the pressure
gradient in the south-central Caribbean. Wind gusts reaching
gale-force are expected starting tonight, then sustained gale-
force winds are forecast for the Gulf of Venezuela on Tue night
and along the coast of Colombia by Wed night. Please see the
National Hurricane Center Atlantic High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis in the eastern Atlantic extends from 20N35W
to 08N38W, moving W at 10 kt. This wave continues to be affected
by Saharan dry air intrusion, limiting convection to the area
where the wave meets the ITCZ from 09N-12N between 36W and 41W.

A tropical wave in the equatorial central Atlantic extends from
01N-14N along 49W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to
be affected by intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust. Shallow
moisture in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports scattered moderate
convection mainly S of 10N.

A tropical wave axis in the central Caribbean extends south of
22N along 72W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a moist
environment at the lower levels as indicated by LPW and GOES-16
water vapor imagery, and under a diffluent environment between
an elongated upper-level low over the central basin and S-SW
flow to the east, which is supporting scattered showers N of 18N
between 70W-73W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis S of 21N
along 81W, moving W at 10 kt. LPW imagery shows shallow moisture
in the vicinity of the wave, and interaction with the monsoon
trough supports scattered moderate convection mainly S of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 20N16W and
extends southwestward to 13N25W then westward to 12N34W. The
ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave near 10N39W and continues to
08N48W, then resumes near 07N51W to 09N61W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is observed along the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad area of high pressure extends from the eastern CONUS
across the basin. Scattered moderate convection is observed N of
25N and W of 94W. Return flow associated with the surface ridge
continues to advect shallow moisture from the Caribbean into the
Gulf, supporting scattered moderate convection in the Yucatan
Channel and south-central Gulf waters between 84W-90W. A surface
trough is in the NE Gulf from the Florida Big Bend to 29N84W
with associated convection over land at this time.

Expect convection to continue across the west Gulf overnight.
Isolated showers are forecast in the Bay of Campeche with a
nocturnal thermal surface trough that will come off the Yucatan
Peninsula each night, and enhance the NE winds off the W Yucatan
Peninsula. Surface ridging will prevail through the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Enhanced satellite imagery continues to show a thin layer of
Saharan dust moving across most of the basin where deep-layer
wind shear prevails. This environment continues to suppress the
development of significant convection across the basin. Shallow
moisture is present south of Cuba, supporting scattered showers.
The monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean supports convection near
Panama. Fresh to near-gale force winds in the south-central
Caribbean are forecast to increase to gale-force gusts in the
Gulf of Venezuela and off the coast of Colombia by tonight, then
sustained gale-force winds will develop through midweek. See the
Special Features section for further details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. See above for
details. A non-tropical low pressure system centered near 31N50W
interacting with a broad upper-level low has unorganized showers
and thunderstorms E-NE of its center, and with environmental
conditions expected to be only marginally conducive for the low
to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, chances for
tropical cyclone development are low. A surface trough extends S
and SE from it to 26N57W supporting scattered showers and tstms
N of 30N between 40W-50W. Aside from the tropical waves, the
remainder of the Atlc is under the influence of surface high
pressure that supports fair weather.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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