[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
136 PM EDT Sun Aug 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 08N-
18N along 25W, moving W at 10 kt. Both water vapor and CIRA LPW
imagery at the lower levels show abundant moisture in the wave
environment. Upper level diffluent flow is also enhancing
convection. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W
Africa from 09N-13N between 15W-20W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-12N between 24W-30W.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 08N-19N
along 35W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave continues to be
affected by intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust as indicated by
GOES-16 RGB and water vapor imagery as well as CIRA LPW imagery.
Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-10N between 30W-36W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
09N-20N along 66W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a moist
environment at the lower levels as indicated by CIRA LPW and water
vapor imagery. The wave is being supported by an inverted trough
in the middle levels and is underneath an upper level low.
Scattered moderate convection is from 14N-17N between 64W-68W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis S of 21N
along 76W, moving W at 15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows shallow
moisture associated with the wave. GOES-16 RGBs shows Saharan dust
moving across the central basin. Scattered showers are within 60
nm of the wave axis. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is inland over N Colombia from 06N-09N between 73W-
77W.

A tropical wave is moving across the Bay of Campeche S of 21N
along 94W, moving W at 20 kt. Shallow moisture supports scattered
showers within 90 nm of the wave axis. This wave will dissipate in
the near future and will not migrate to the Eastern Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N16W to 10N32W. The ITCZ begins
W of a tropical wave near 09N36W and continues to 06N53W. Besides
the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, isolated
moderate convection is from 07N-09N between 39W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda high extends a ridge axis SW across the Florida
Peninsula to the NW Gulf of Mexico providing light to locally
moderate SE to E winds. A surface trough is embedded over the W
Gulf from 26N90W to 23N96W. A tropical wave is also over the Bay
of Campeche. See above. CIRA LPW imagery shows shallow moisture
across the basin. Patches of scattered moderate convection are
over the W Gulf W of 88W. In the upper levels, the western half
of the Gulf is under a diffluent environment enhancing showers and
tstms W of 90W. Elsewhere, over the E gulf, upper level
diffluence supports showers from 23N-28N E of 86W. Expect
convection and showers over the western Gulf to continue through
Monday. Otherwise, surface ridging will prevail through early
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above.
Presently scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands. More
showers are along the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. GOES-16
RGBs indicates a thin layer of Saharan dust is over the basin.
This along with strong deep layer wind shear is suppressing
convection over the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect a strong
surface pressure gradient area N of Colombia to support fresh to
near gale force winds through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A non-tropical 1011 mb low centered over the central Atlantic
near 32N46W continues to produce limited shower activity.
Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally
conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics while it moves little over the next day or so, and
then moves north-northeastward through Tuesday. Aside from the
tropical waves, the remainder the Atlc is under the influence of a
surface ridges that supports fair weather.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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