[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 04N-
17N along 22W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave continue to be
affected by intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust as indicated by
GOES-16 RGB imagery and by CIRA LPW imagery. Shallow moisture and
diffluent flow aloft support scattered moderate convection from
09N-14N between 20W- 26W.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 04N-17N
along 30W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave continue to be affected
by intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust as indicated by GOES-16
RGB imagery and by CIRA LPW imagery. No convection is associated
with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles with axis
extending from 07N-18N along 57W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave
is in a very moist environment that is supporting scattered
showers and tstms from 12N-16N W of the wave axis...including the
Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis S of 20N
along 72W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The southern half of the wave
environment is in a strong deep layer shear environment that
hinder convection development at the time.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis S of 20N along
87W, moving W at 15 kt. Abundant low level moisture and upper
level divergence support scattered showers and tstms from 12N-
18N W of 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 11N24W to 09N33W. The
ITCZ begins near 09N33W and continues to 12N54W. Please refer to
the TROPICAL WAVES section for information about precipitation.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through the Texas coastal plains,
into Mexico near 20N103W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the areas from the Texas coastal plains and coastal waters, into
central Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward.

A surface trough is along 28N85W 25N85W 22N86W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico
from 90W eastward.

The current 28N85W 22N86W surface trough will move westward
across the southern and central waters through Sunday night,
accompanied by scattered rainshowers with thunder. Surface
troughs moving offshore the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh
to locally strong wind speeds in the eastern waters of the Bay of
Campeche from the evenings to late at night during the next few
days. Surface high pressure will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, remaining for the upper level trough of the last
few days. Middle level cyclonic wind flow is in the coastal areas
and inland areas of Honduras and Nicaragua. scattered strong
rainshowers cover the areas that are from 14N to 18N between 82W
and 86W, in the coastal waters and the coastal plains of Honduras
and Nicaragua.

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 21N63W
cyclonic circulation center, into the eastern Caribbean Sea, to
the coast of Venezuela along 67W/68W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers cover the waters from 17N southward between
55W and 72W. A tropical wave is along 55W/56W, moving into the
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are between Cuba,
Haiti, and Jamaica.

The monsoon trough is along 09N74W to 09N79W, beyond 10N86W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the
Honduras-Nicaragua precipitation, from 12N southward from 75W
westward.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central
Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras through Wednesday
night. The strongest wind speeds will pulse to 30 knots near
12N74W during the overnight hours, and the sea heights may reach
10 to 12 feet. It is possible that the wind speeds may approach
minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia late on Wednesday
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air in
subsidence cover the Atlantic Ocean from the Bahamas northward
between 71W and 76W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33N44W. Large-
scale cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 20W and 60W. A stationary front is along 33N37W
31N40W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 32N45W. The
stationary front continues to a 1015 mb low pressure center that
is near 32N51W. A cold front continues from the 1015 mb low
pressure center, to 28N56W, 28N60W, to 32N70W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean
from 25N northward between 39W and 52W. isolated moderate
rainshowers accompany the cold front from 26N northward between
50W and 70W.

The wind speeds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern
coast of Hispaniola each night through Wednesday night. The trade
trade winds, elsewhere across the region, will diminish gradually
through early next week. An Atlantic Ocean ridge will weaken,
with a backdoor cold front moving southward. The front will
weaken into a trough by Sunday evening. It is possible that weak
low pressure may develop along the trough through early next week.
A surface ridge will re-develop by the middle of the next week as
the trough dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/NR
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