[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 17N southward.
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the area
that is from 10N to 14N between 20W and 24W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 17N southward.
isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area that is from 08N to
14N between 25W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 19N southward.
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
10N to 1N between 55W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. isolated moderate rainshowers
are in the area that is from 10N to 17N between 60W and 71W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W from 202N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving into the
area of a pre-existing upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a
trough.

A tropical wave is along 94W/95W from 20N southward, from the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of
the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
and Gambia near near 13N17W, to 12N21W, 12N25W, and 11N32W. The
ITCZ continues from 11N32W to 08N43W, 07N48W, and 07N56W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 08N to 13N between Africa and 31W. isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 03N to 16N between 31W and 60W.
Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information
about precipitation.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow from a trough spans the NW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, the Texas coastal waters, and interior
sections of Mexico from 20N northward from the Texas Big Bend
eastward. The upper level trough was being associated with a
stationary front during the last few days. The southwesternmost
point of the stationary front now is in west central Louisiana.
One surface trough is in the northeast and north central Gulf of
Mexico, from the Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana, and to 26N93W.
A second surface trough is along 28N95W 25N96W 20N97W. widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Gulf
of Mexico to the west of the line from 30N86W 24N90W 19N92W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 87W
eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is related to the upper level
trough that extends from the NW Bahamas to coastal Nicaragua. widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the
Straits of Florida, parts of Cuba, and the Caribbean Sea to the
south of Cuba from 18N to 25N between 74W and 85W, and in the Gulf
of Mexico from 24N northward between 83W and 87W.

The northern part of a tropical wave will cross the southern Gulf
this weekend. Surface troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula
will produce fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern
waters of the Bay of Campeche from sunset to around midnight.
Otherwise, high pressure ridging will prevail in the wake of the
tropical wave.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the NW Bahamas, across the
western half of Cuba, into the coastal sections of Nicaragua.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in the coastal areas
of Nicaragua from 11N to 14N between 82W and 85W. widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Straits of
Florida, parts of Cuba, and the Caribbean Sea to the south of Cuba
from 18N to 25N between 74W and 85W, and in the Gulf of Mexico
from 24N northward between 83W and 87W. isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 78W and 81W.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N to 16N between 68W and
74W, in an area of scattered to broken low level clouds.

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 21N56W
cyclonic circulation center, to 15N59W, toward Venezuela and
Trinidad. A tropical wave is moving through the same area.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond 83W/84W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
away from the Nicaragua precipitation, from 11N southward from 76W
westward.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central
Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras through Wednesday
night. The strongest wind speeds will pulse to 30 knots near
12N74W during the overnight hours, and the sea heights may reach
10 to 12 feet. It is possible that the wind speeds may approach
minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia late on Wednesday
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air in
subsidence cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between
66W and 73W.

Large-scale cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 20W and 60W. The comparatively greatest amount
of cyclonic wind flow is associated with a cyclonic circulation
center that is near 37N40W. A cold front passes through 32N36W to
30N40W and 32N45W. A stationary front continues northwestward to a
1016 mb low pressure center that is near 35N50W. A cold front
continues from the low pressure center, through 32N55W, to 31N60W,
to Bermuda, and to 34N67W. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 30N to 32N between 45W and 47W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 24N northward between 40W
and 52W, and from 30N northward between 50W and 70W. .

The wind speeds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern
coast of Hispaniola each night through Wednesday night. The trade
trade winds, elsewhere across the region, will diminish gradually
through early next week. An Atlantic Ocean ridge will weaken,
with a backdoor cold front moving southward. The front will
weaken into a trough by Sunday evening. It is possible that weak
low pressure may develop along the trough through early next week.
A surface ridge will re-develop by the middle of the next week as
the trough dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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