[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is from 07N-21N along 23W, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 15N E of 32W.

A tropical wave is from 05N-18N along 47W, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Isolated showers are ahead of the wave axis from 10N to 13N
between 48W and 53W.

A tropical wave is from 06N-19N along 61W, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Isolated showers are from 10N to 16N between 54W and 66W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis S of 21N along
81W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is underneath an upper level
low that support numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms S of
16N W of 80W and along Cuba and adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N17W to 12N26W to 10N32W. The
ITCZ begins near 10N32W and continues to 07N46W...then resumes
near 07N49W and ends near 07N56W. Please refer to the TROPICAL
WAVES section for information about precipitation.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow from a trough spans the NW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, the Texas coastal waters, and interior
sections of Mexico from 20N northward from the Texas Big Bend
eastward. The upper level trough was being associated with a
stationary front during the last few days. A surface trough extends
from SW Louisiana near 29N92W SW to north of Tampico near 23N97W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover
the Gulf of Mexico to the west of the line from 30N86W 24N90W
19N92W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 87W
eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is related to the upper level
trough that extends from the NW Bahamas to coastal Nicaragua. widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the
Straits of Florida, parts of Cuba, and the Caribbean Sea to the
south of Cuba from 18N to 25N between 74W and 85W, and in the Gulf
of Mexico from 24N northward between 83W and 87W.

The current Florida Panhandle-to-26N93W surface trough will shift
W and inland through tonight. The northern extent of the current
78W/80W tropical wave will move through the Straits of Florida
tonight, and across the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Surface troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to locally strong winds in the eastern waters of the Bay of
Campeche from sunset to midnight. High pressure will prevail in
the wake of the tropical wave.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the NW Bahamas, across the
western half of Cuba, into the coastal sections of Nicaragua.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in the coastal areas
of Nicaragua from 11N to 14N between 82W and 85W. widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Straits of
Florida, parts of Cuba, and the Caribbean Sea to the south of Cuba
from 18N to 25N between 74W and 85W, and in the Gulf of Mexico
from 24N northward between 83W and 87W. isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 78W and 81W.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N to 16N between 68W and
74W, in an area of scattered to broken low level clouds.

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 21N56W
cyclonic circulation center, to 15N59W, toward Venezuela and
Trinidad. A tropical wave is moving through the same area.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond 83W/84W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
away from the Nicaragua precipitation, from 11N southward from 76W
westward.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central
Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras through Tuesday night.
The strongest wind speeds will pulse to 30 knots near 12N74W
during the overnight hours, where the sea heights occasionally
will build to 10 to 12 feet.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air in
subsidence cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between
66W and 73W.

Large-scale cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 20W and 60W. The comparatively greatest amount
of cyclonic wind flow is associated with a cyclonic circulation
center that is near 37N40W. A cold front passes through 32N36W to
30N40W and 32N45W. A stationary front continues northwestward to a
1016 mb low pressure center that is near 35N50W. A cold front
continues from the low pressure center, through 32N55W, to 31N60W,
to Bermuda, and to 34N67W. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 30N to 32N between 45W and 47W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 24N northward between 40W
and 52W, and from 30N northward between 50W and 70W. .

The wind speeds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern
coast of Hispaniola each night through Tuesday night. The trade
trade winds, elsewhere across the region, will diminish gradually
through early next week. An Atlantic Ocean ridge will weaken,
with a backdoor cold front moving southward. The front will
dissipate into a trough through the end of the weekend. It is
possible that weak low pressure may develop along the trough
through early next week. A surface ridge will re-develop by the
middle of the week as the trough dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/NR
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