[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 08N-18N
along 25W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is being severely
affected by a Saharan Air Layer outbreak as depicted by GOES-16
RGBs and CIRA LPW imagery. With this, no significant convection is
observed at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
08N-17N along 39W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is also being
severely affected by Saharan Air Layer dry air and dust as
depicted by GOES-16 RGBs, low-level water vapor and CIRA LPW
imagery. No significant convection is associated to this wave at
this time.

A tropical wave in the central Atlc with axis extending from 07N-
17N along 55W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is being supported
by a mid-to-upper level inverted trough. Moderate moisture along
10N associated with the ITCZ supports scattered showers along the
wave's axis on this latitude.

A tropical wave is in the west Caribbean with axis extending S of
21N along 79W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Saharan dust prevails in the
wave's environment, as noted in GOES-16 RGBs imagery. The
northern portion of the wave is in an area where an upper- level
low is enhancing convection over the Windward Passage and eastern
Cuba.

A tropical wave is moving off the Yucatan Peninsula into the E Bay
of Campeche. Its axis is S of 22N along 95W, moving W at 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed over southern
Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W
to 15N21W, then resumes near 11N26W to 09N37W. The ITCZ begins
near 09N41W and continues to 09N54W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers are noted
along the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlc subtropical high extends across the basin supporting
light to gentle southeasterly flow. CIRA LPW imagery show very
moist air at low levels across the basin, which is being advected
from the Caribbean by the return flow. This moist environment
along with diffluence aloft supports scattered showers and tstms
N of 23N E of 92W. A surface trough extends from 31N84W to 24N95W
and is related to this convection. To the southwest, a thermal
through currently extending over the Yucatan Peninsula is
enhancing convection across the eastern portion of the Bay of
Campeche. Showers are forecast to continue in the aforementioned
regions through early Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant shallow moisture is in the NW and central Caribbean as
noted in CIRA LPW imagery. This moisture along with middle-to-upper
level diffluence is supporting scattered showers N of 18N and
west of 80W. An upper-level low off the E coast of Jamaica
support scattered showers over eastern Cuba and the Windward
Passage related also to a tropical wave. See the section above for
details. Elsewhere, GOES-16 water vapor and RGB imagery show dry
air and dust across the E basin, which in part is hindering the
development of convection. A new tropical wave is forecast to move
across the Lesser Antilles by Thu with showers for the Windward
Islands.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves move across the basin, see the section above
for details. Elsewhere, the Atlc subtropical high dominates the
basin, supporting fair weather conditions. Surface ridging will
dominate the basin through the next couple of days providing
stable and dry conditions.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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